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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

NickyBGuarantee said:
Yeah I’m certainly fine without being in the jackpot of mesoscale band development 60-80 hours out .. if it holds at 10-24 hours I’m crying but these usually over preform for most involved whenever I see something like this.. plus with NWS talking about those rapidly rising ratios in these bands .. have to assume an over preformed is incoming for someone
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This certainly could happen but the set up and dynamics here are different I'm afraid. Lots of agreement right now between models for this to actually occur as plotted. Dependent on where it sets up though of course. Have to see what 0z NAM does now. Is it cave time?
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
Almost look like a meso low could be trying to cut off around Florence sc, that could lead to a lift for central sc and nc.
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NC is very greedy when it comes to snow.. We want our own set up with our own meso low than won’t give anyone but us snow.. take that NE
 
The infamous upstate mesolow showing up here on the 18z GFS and 12z UKMet (1st 2 images below).....forms in the lee of the Apps as the trough swings thru, with associated area of low level convergence and rising motion

I don't think this will be nearly as dynamic as Jan 2003. Looking at similar setups in the past, the one that this looks most similar to to me is Feb 2013 (has been mentioned in the thread). Loop and NC snow map for that storm included at bottom. Hopefully, this one will produce more down east associated with the sfc low.

Let's see how the models trend in terms of strength of the trough and associated 500mb vort max that swing through (and placement / track). Precip output specifics can be a wildcard / less predictable in this setup. Temperatures may be a bit warm Fri aftn before crashing with any significant precip that develops into the evening

Eps4uS1.png


wqqCg9N.png


VMqSlRU.gif


zWMcq8d.gif
 
griteater said:
The infamous upstate mesolow showing up here on the 18z GFS and 12z UKMet (1st 2 images below).....forms in the lee of the Apps as the trough swings thru, with associated area of low level convergence and rising motion

I don't think this will be nearly as dynamic as Jan 2003. Looking at similar setups in the past, the one that this looks most similar to to me is Feb 2013 (has been mentioned in the thread). Loop and NC snow map for that storm included at bottom. Hopefully, this one will produce more down east associated with the sfc low.

Let's see how the models trend in terms of strength of the trough and associated 500mb vort max that swing through (and placement / track). Precip output specifics can be a wildcard / less predictable in this setup. Temperatures may be a bit warm Fri aftn before crashing with any significant precip that develops into the evening

Eps4uS1.png


wqqCg9N.png


VMqSlRU.gif


zWMcq8d.gif
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I think this saved my winter of ‘12, from being a total disaster! Had something like this come thru around noon, started as graupel and 41 degrees, snowed very hard for like 20 minutes, temp dropped to 31 and had about an inch accumulation, that was it for that horrible winter, but was nice to witness
 
Tarheel1 said:
I think this saved my winter of ‘12, from being a total disaster! Had something like this come thru around noon, started as graupel and 41 degrees, snowed very hard for like 20 minutes, temp dropped to 31 and had about an inch accumulation, that was it for that horrible winter, but was nice to witness
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Think you meant '13?? But yeah, I see 2.0 inches logged at GSP (02/16/13)
 
griteater said:
The infamous upstate mesolow showing up here on the 18z GFS and 12z UKMet (1st 2 images below).....forms in the lee of the Apps as the trough swings thru, with associated area of low level convergence and rising motion

I don't think this will be nearly as dynamic as Jan 2003. Looking at similar setups in the past, the one that this looks most similar to to me is Feb 2013 (has been mentioned in the thread). Loop and NC snow map for that storm included at bottom. Hopefully, this one will produce more down east associated with the sfc low.

Let's see how the models trend in terms of strength of the trough and associated 500mb vort max that swing through (and placement / track). Precip output specifics can be a wildcard / less predictable in this setup. Temperatures may be a bit warm Fri aftn before crashing with any significant precip that develops into the evening

Eps4uS1.png


wqqCg9N.png


VMqSlRU.gif


zWMcq8d.gif
Click to expand...
Yeah this reminds more of the February 2013 set up, but I think with more coverage overall like what these in house models are picking up on. Actually a week before the January 23,2003 storm, there was another one with a Lee side trough that produced widespread 2-4” snowfall across the areas that the Euro and these in house models are showing… that storm like the February 2013 storm saw temperatures crash extremely fast… CLT went from the mid 40s to low 30s in under 30 minutes as snow began falling
 
pcbjr said:
Mods , You can hang me or tie me to the whippping post for placing this here, but at least it may get noticed ... is the site terribly slow? All other websites are zipping along nicely; here is taking forever to load ... "lust asking for a friend" ...
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somethings going on out of our control as the server/resources have been fine today on our end.
 
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