Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

[NickyBGuarantee]

We was about to get a weenie RAP run lol…. Look at that convective death band forming in the mountainsView attachment 110770

I’ve never seen models really latch onto this sort of thing this far out .. especially as strong as they show it now.. this may be a tremendous band come go time.. time will be the only limiting factor here .. key is what kind of snow rates can we get under this band

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EPS looks better for everyone

 

[griteater]

I’ve never seen models really latch onto this sort of thing this far out .. especially as strong as they show it now.. this may be a tremendous band come go time.. time will be the only limiting factor here .. key is what kind of snow rates can we get under this band

The precip tends to last longer than you might expect in these setups. It will form and expand in the lee of the apps, then be a bit slow to move off to the east. Euro is showing some 8-9 hours of precip in the Hickory to Charlotte to N SC corridor. We’ll see how it trends going forward

 

[Jessy89]

Is the western part of the upstate such as Anderson Pickens and Greenville are not going to see any thing for this storm

I could be wrong. These lows sometimes can bring surprises. But I really don’t see the western upstate seeing much from this. We might see some flakes but im really expecting the eastern upstate to see 1-3 type snow event


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[Myfrotho704_]

The precip tends to last longer than you might expect in these setups. It will form and expand in the lee of the apps, then be a bit slow to move off to the east. Euro is showing some 8-9 hours of precip in the Hickory to Charlotte to N SC corridor. We’ll see how it trends going forward

Also tends to be heavier then what global NWP show, the intense 700mb vertical velocity/moist column/steep mid level lapse rates argues for scattered but heavy banding

 

[Clem282340]

I could be wrong. These lows sometimes can bring surprises. But I really don’t see the western upstate seeing much from this. We might see some flakes but im really expecting the eastern upstate to see 1-3 type snow event


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I think the 18z 3k nam show a little something for our area I’m hoping it show it on tonight’s run again

 

[Chazwin]

Also tends to be heavier then what global NWP show, the intense 700mb vertical velocity/moist column/steep mid level lapse rates argues for scattered but heavy banding

This is very true. Like I said earlier this is the type of set were widespread 1-3” is certainly possible, but for those that get under one those intense bands…it could very easily balloon into 4-5”+

 

[Jessy89]

I think the 18z 3k nam show a little something for our area I’m hoping it show it on tonight’s run again

I want us to see snow here in Pickens county. You live right down the road from me. I live off breazeale Rd close to Pickens airport. But I’m not getting my expectations of this event to high. That way if we do see a surprise I would really be excited even if it’s just a inch.


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[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Euro is reminding me of how the RGEM was last week. Was the first to latch onto the ULT and hadn’t looked back. Got to love the consistency


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[iGRXY]

Is the western part of the upstate such as Anderson Pickens and Greenville are not going to see any thing for this storm

Way too soon to say yes or no. More and more precip continues to trend further and further west. I will say the gradient would probably be really sharp as the mountains of SC can really hurt places like Oconee, Pickens, and Anderson counties. Those areas could see a dusting where DT Greenville might see an inch or 2 and then places like Spartanburg, Cherokee, Union, back towards Charlotte and the 77 corridor might get 2-4”. Precip is usually underdone with these ULL and rates are very hard if you get under those bands. Right now I still say areas along and east of highway 25 that runs through Greenville county stand the best shot to seeing some real accumulation.

 

[Tarheel1]

The precip tends to last longer than you might expect in these setups. It will form and expand in the lee of the apps, then be a bit slow to move off to the east. Euro is showing some 8-9 hours of precip in the Hickory to Charlotte to N SC corridor. We’ll see how it trends going forward

January’03 style? For GSP area. Started snowing and called for 1-3”, kept snowing and Gaffney to Gastonia got about 10” as the temps crashed? Remember that one?

 

[SNOWMANN]

Dude.. that’s epic View attachment 110771

Best porn around!! I hope that materializes for me and you I'll barley catch it as it forms as depicted but nice to see for sure thanks for posting that bro

 

[griteater]

January’03 style? For GSP area. Started snowing and called for 1-3”, kept snowing and Gaffney to Gastonia got about 10” as the temps crashed? Remember that one?

Yes though I mentioned earlier that I don’t see this one being near as dynamic as that one which is a high bar

 

[Chandler]

Count me in

 

[LukeBarrette]

Count me inView attachment 110790

The NE crying

 

[BelmontWX79]

These bands can cool the surface off really quickly too. In 2013 it was near 40 at my house when it began if memory serves. Started pretty much as all snow and it took 10-15 minutes to fall to freezing.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

HRRR about to light up that band

 

[Myfrotho704_]

@griteater saw something similar 2 weeks ago as the northern stream Upper level trough/low passed over from SW > NE, pretty cool stuff, I picked up 1 inch of snow in 45 minutes. Models were very bleak what that and only showed 0.1-0.3 with that backside stuff, with some HRRR runs actually showing nill. I find this setup very interesting to how similar it was to feb 2013 wrt the mesolow feature.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hrrr looked nice and juicy with the band moving SE, and crashing sfc temps, can’t wait for the runs tomorrow

 

[iGRXY]

Hrrr looked nice and juicy with the band moving SE, and crashing sfc temps, can’t wait for the runs tomorrow View attachment 110802

Honestly looking at the soundings I think most of that would be snow