Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential

[iGRXY]

GFS actually looks a little further east with the SW at 42 lololol

 

[CaryWx]

Yes it’s a very good look. The other thing is… this isn’t just an ULL… this a Lee side trough/ULL… it’s a set up that has done very well for the Piedmont over the years and it’s something that has and is gaining more support from models… both operational and ensembles

'fraid that leaves a gap over the Triangle though

 

[BullCityWx]

'fraid that leaves a gap over the Triangle though

I think it depends on where you are.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

@Lickwx that you? You better paint some snow
showers over my house.

 

[griteater]

Okay, the DGZ is wherever you are from -10 to -15 in the atmosphere, right?

-12 to -18 deg C.....maximized at -15 deg C

 

[crecre9]

Okay, the DGZ is wherever you are from -10 to -15 in the atmosphere, right?

-12 to -17 C

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

RGEM giving us scraps…lucky for it…we love the scraps

View attachment 110731

Wow yeah RGEM really picking up on those localized bands that can develop over the Carolina’s .. simply won’t know where those bands develop until almost go time .. also I like the beefing up of precip overall for most of NC

 

[rduwx]

I think it depends on where you are.

I agree. For Wake County I could see us in the dry slot if things set as the models have been showing lately. I’ve seen that happen a few times with Lee side trough setups.

 

[CaryWx]

Yep and latest

I agree. For Wake County I could see us in the dry slot if things set as the models have been showing lately. I’ve seen that happen a few times with Lee side trough setups.

18z gfs confirming this as well. Seeing it on nearly all the models except maybe the NAM. Have to see where HRRR sets it up when the time comes

 

[Chazwin]

'fraid that leaves a gap over the Triangle though

It could. I remember in the January 2003 storm, the Triangle was in that area of much lighter totals… these set ups tend to favor CLT metro up to the Triad

 

[BullCityWx]

-12 to -18 deg C.....maximized at -15 deg C

Even at that, it looks like a really cold column.

 

[Broken024]

Gfs has it

 

[griteater]

GFS 3hr QPF progression

 

[Chandler]

CLT jackpot

 

[KyloG]

Yikes...that sound you hear is the PHL to NYC crowd melting down....

 

[lexxnchloe]

Gfs has it
View attachment 110735View attachment 110738

Somehow that looks better to me for eastern areas. No doubt we will see if this corrects more west in later runs. That is a nice band out west.

 

[Jessy89]

This will be a decent snow for the mountains. Probably blank the western upstate and fire back up again for the eastern upstate and really dump a decent amount on the eastern Carolinas especially eastern NC


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[NickyBGuarantee]

CLT jackpotView attachment 110740

Yeah I’m certainly fine without being in the jackpot of mesoscale band development 60-80 hours out .. if it holds at 10-24 hours I’m crying but these usually over preform for most involved whenever I see something like this.. plus with NWS talking about those rapidly rising ratios in these bands .. have to assume an over preformed is incoming for someone

 

[tramadoc]

Obx gets more than the NE. Lock it in

If that happened we could hear the screaming and gnashing of teeth. That and shotgun breeches being slammed shut.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Yikes...that sound you hear is the PHL to NYC crowd melting down....

View attachment 110741

I’m not buying the Nantucket jackpot yet. Heaviest totals should shift westward.