lexxnchloe
Member
Maybe i dont read maps right but to be honest 18z looks to have a better low position than the other previous.
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Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
The 3K looks even better with the UL passage fir western areas.
Prestige Worldwide
Member
Congrats OBX
Keep in mind that it’s not the temperature at the surface that determines the ratio, but the temperature in DGZ that’s important… along with other factors such as wind. Surface temperatures has nothing to do with it…. In the January 2003 storm that gave CLT metro 40:1 ratios, temperatures were in the 33-35 degree range when it started and fell back into the 20s from there, but even as the snow was starting it was very noticeably the fluffiest snow I had ever seen
I see that the NAM 12K and NAM 3K continues to be way too far NW with the precipitation,even with the later phasing. No chance this solution comes to pass.
12K NAM redevelops the LP closer to the coast at around hour 66 per the surface map.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Obx gets more than the NE. Lock it in
lexxnchloe
Member
Maybe this is the end of the bad trends and it will trend better from here. Even so, coastal areas that rarely get snow still look good on this map.
Turner Team
Member
The precipitation from Central NC west is associated with the Upper Level Trough that's swinging through, not the Low off the coast.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
More in play besides the Lp off the coast. This is mostly ULL driven.
Agreed… even what it’s showing snow wise looks to be more associated with the Lee side trough than with the actual surface low itself. Also GSP is beginning to talk more of that possibility. One thing of note with that is that type of development will cause temperatures to crash at the surface very quickly… in the February 2013 event my temperature dropped from 42 to 32 in just a matter of a few minutes as the snow started falling
pcbjr
Member
IMHO they are way to far NW with the 540 ...
I know. I was talking about the precipitation closer to the coastline, which is not ULL driven. The NAM still has it too far west. The precipitation associated with the ULL is believable. The Precipitation that's closer to the coast is not, especially with the later phase.
This is pretty much what the Euro is showing and what the GFS is starting to pick up on… you can’t just look at the surface map. The snow that this is showing from basically west of I-95 isn’t from the surface, but the Lee side trough/ULL that’s swinging through
Sure NAM was still solid if you ignore the trend which is hard to do
packfan98
Moderator
I know that every system and setup is different, but there is some similarity with regards to the SW energy from last week with the modeling. The models were digging the energy too much and in the last 24 hours started speeding up the energy and bringing more of it out. I do wonder if we will see anything similar with this system.
Seems to me that the thing to hope for at this point is a quick 1-3”/2-4” event for much of NC from the ULL. Most every model has this at this point. There will be winners and losers with this setup and snowfall amounts will not be even across the region. It’s not what we want, but it’s better than nothing. ?
Poor Boston and NYC ! Bet the meltdowns are epic! Here’s Brads thoughts!
You should be less 100% when talking about weather in NC and weather in general .. there’s lots of moving parts to this system and a couple of them have the ability to deliver a good snow to different areas of NC. None of the models have the correct solution right now .. they are just tools we should look at all of them that way .. what are they trying to show us .. we decipher that and try and make a prediction. To cancel out completely the possibility that a storms precipitation is much more NW then currently forecasted 2-3 days out when all of our past storms have followed that same trend wouldn’t be the smartest thing imo on the other hand it’s clear there is a trend further out to sea in general and that must be taken into account
Last two paragraphs of RAH's long range discussion (could be fun):
~
The arrival of the strong forcing/lift associated with the
amplifying northern stream trough diving into the region Friday
evening, coincident with a surface cold front that will push
southeast through the area, will lead to the development of precip
back across the western NC that will push east overnight. The
resultant deep column cooling will result in a fairly
efficient/quick change-over from rain to snow, with any transition p-
type of freezing rain/sleet being very short-lived and
inconsequential. Snow amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible along
and north of HWY 64, with 1 inch or less expected across the
southern half of the forecast areas. Since the Winter Storm Warning
for snow is 3", will not issue any watches with this forecast
package.
However, it is also important to note, deep f-gen forcing and the
presence of CSI suggest favorable conditions for mesoscale snow
bands to develop and spread east across central NC Friday night.
Furthermore, intense dynamic cooling aloft will result in a sharp
increase in snow/liquid ratios(SLR) on the order of 15-17:1)
during that same time frame. These ingredients could result in the
potential for some very localized/very focused higher snowfall
amounts, quite possibly even warning criteria (>=3"). While it`s
very difficult to know exactly where these bands will set up, the
greatest potential is across the northern Piedmont and northern
coastal plain counties.
~
The arrival of the strong forcing/lift associated with the
amplifying northern stream trough diving into the region Friday
evening, coincident with a surface cold front that will push
southeast through the area, will lead to the development of precip
back across the western NC that will push east overnight. The
resultant deep column cooling will result in a fairly
efficient/quick change-over from rain to snow, with any transition p-
type of freezing rain/sleet being very short-lived and
inconsequential. Snow amounts of 1 to 2 inches are possible along
and north of HWY 64, with 1 inch or less expected across the
southern half of the forecast areas. Since the Winter Storm Warning
for snow is 3", will not issue any watches with this forecast
package.
However, it is also important to note, deep f-gen forcing and the
presence of CSI suggest favorable conditions for mesoscale snow
bands to develop and spread east across central NC Friday night.
Furthermore, intense dynamic cooling aloft will result in a sharp
increase in snow/liquid ratios(SLR) on the order of 15-17:1)
during that same time frame. These ingredients could result in the
potential for some very localized/very focused higher snowfall
amounts, quite possibly even warning criteria (>=3"). While it`s
very difficult to know exactly where these bands will set up, the
greatest potential is across the northern Piedmont and northern
coastal plain counties.