D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Go read the RAH discussion. To my surprise they were rather bullish on the snow associated with the UL passage. They even mention the ever-elusive higher ratios ?
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry 01/28-29/2022 Winter Weather Potential
- Thread starter Shawn
- Start date
For folks east of 95 in NC, more times than not SLP corrects west inside 48hrs, delta PVA looks to max around Myrtle before going offshore currently, if it’s Savannah we get smoked, it’s not far off in the grand scheme and evident by volatility in guidance. A late bloomer but it’s still a solid look inside day 3, I’m at the table with ante.
@Faco Thomas Google it?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_vorticity_advection
@Faco Thomas Google it?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_vorticity_advection
Last edited:
iGRXY
Member
3K is really picking up on the ULL passage and shows more moisture associated with it. Dropping a solid amount at hour 60 with at least a couple more hours to go. Definitely could drop a quick 1-3” for a lot of areas in the western carolinas
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
RGEM looks like it’s starting to pick up on the ULT. Much more precip associated with that as opposed to previous runs
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
I could definitely see this being a widespread 1-3” type event for the NC Foothills, Piedmont, Sandhills, as well eastern SC upstate. The key would be where any convective elements set up as those would create some very intense rates in very short amount of time… in the February 2013 event CLT had 3.3” with 2.7” of it falling in just about 1 hour
iGRXY
Member
I was ready to fold with the last storm when the storm practically went poof around 24-30 hours out only to make the drastic NW trend. There will be a NW trend of some kind, always is. Just a matter of how much.
griteater
Member
iGRXY
Member
Probably going to be the 3rd straight storm that we have to wait to get in the HRRR range to pick up on the specifics of the ULL as it swings through.
NCSNOW
Member
- Joined
- Dec 2, 2016
- Messages
- 9,902
- Reaction score
- 19,846
Yea this isn't a good trade off even for central NC. The phase scenario was the way to go and unfortunately it trended in the wrong direction from Triad out to the big pond. Folks counting on ULL best get ready for dry bones let down IMO. Hopefully I'm wrong
I’m vindictive, so I do kind of love to see the ULL trending stronger over us to give a small/moderate event while New England gets screwed over. Haha.
Definitely an increasing consensus and better amounts showing up with the ULL passage today. This is occurring across all models, and if it trends better we could be looking at a nice event from that alone.
lexxnchloe
Member
More moisture so maybe its a start of a trend. It didnt get any worse at least.
So with a few days to go, the 12z Euro shows about three feet for Boston, the 18z RGEM shows around a foot, and the 18z NAM shows literally zilch. Quite the difference….
I can't stop looking at the 3k Sim satellite with the rapidly cooling cloud tops over nc and the banded precip
You read my mind bro lol I'll take all the scraps I can get especially if I end up with more than parts of new england aside from coastal areas lol I've scored and been burnt with ull but the lee side meso low gives me hope for the foothills and peidmont.
Still decent soundings west of 1 with plenty of lift in a fairly saturated dgz. Might not be ripping mashed potatoes like it would be east but not a bad look
Okay, the DGZ is wherever you are from -10 to -15 in the atmosphere, right?
If that is the case, the DGZ is going to be very close to the 925MB level, which is pretty wild for this latitude. That is, of course, according to the RGEM.