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Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)

We do have to remember though. The HRRR and RAP was showing sleet last week with our rainstorm we got. That did not happen at all.

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Loganelliott99 said:
We do have to remember though. The HRRR and RAP was showing sleet last week with our rainstorm we got. That did not happen at all.

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Whole different setup tho, the hrrr has done well actually with precip associated with UL troughs, for example this setup which the NAMS struggled to show until under 24 hours 09FB3178-B27F-4044-A3D2-7EBD4838F736.png
 
NorthGaWinter4 said:
But we had no shot at flurries you said????
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Well to be fair this solution has sneaked into modeling, the look before would have been a no go and a widely scattered flurry at best with the best N/S energy near the GL, and not a ULL in Kentucky/Tennessee
 
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What's interesting is that none of the models had shown the area of snow showers over eastern Kansas at this moment that's associated with the energy near the base of the trough. This is a good example of the models not being to pick up on a shallow layer of moisture. Even the most recent NAM and HRRR runs, they're not seeing anything in that area despite the fact that there are returns showing up on radar.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
What's interesting is that none of the models had shown the area of snow showers over eastern Kansas at this moment that's associated with the energy near the base of the trough. This is a good example of the models not being to pick up on a shallow layer of moisture. Even the most recent NAM and HRRR runs, they're not seeing anything in that area despite the fact that there are returns showing up on radar.
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Yeah my friend @MattLabenzwx has been getting snow from this, even tho the mesos showed next to nothing
 
I am afraid the air will be so dry that it may just end up virga for most folks outside the mountains. However with real cold air coming in and a chance at flurries on Christmas Day, this will be a rare occurrence for us and anything we see will be special
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
We’ll to be fair this solution has sneaked into modeling, the look before would have been a no go and a widely scattered flurry at best with the best N/S energy near the GL, and not a ULL in Kentucky/Tennessee
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This ^. I said a few days ago (& have repeatedly) that if you want snow from upper lows it needs to pass over you or to your south, we’ve trended that way synoptically in a big way which makes the prospects of flurries more legit. What we had before with the upper low moving over the OH river Valley and KY wouldn’t get the job done
 
Loganelliott99 said:
I think it was the first to pick up on that first snow we got last year. However that's the only time it's been right lol

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Much different set up, but it also did well with the April 2, 2019 event with the band of 1-3 inch totals across NE York County, SC and into SE Union County,NC
 
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