Idk about inches, but I guess it's possible. Like @Myfrotho704_ mentioned I am concerned about the dry air.
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Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Idk about inches, but I guess it's possible. Like @Myfrotho704_ mentioned I am concerned about the dry air.
I’d wait to say it would be of that magnitude yet, but the hrrr can catch things like this and it may just be catching on the what the UL trough of that magnitude would do, I mean the air aloft is stupid cold compared to the surface
Snownut
Member
That's what happened in 2010 and even upstate had a white Christmas
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I would take this with a big grain of salt but the 18z NAM has a brief change over to snow for Atlanta on the back end of the main precipitation band tomorrow afternoon/evening.
Rosie
Member
WWA here Thurs. 1pm.
Looking into that hrrr run, I’m seeing more and more why it spat out that solution, it has a sfc trough/lee trough East of the mountains (which is classic with summer storm setups), it has a plume of moist 700s Moving in and very very steep low level lapse rates, this stuff is driven off pure convective qualities 
This will be fun. Snow moves overhead, wind picks up, flurries break through
We also have to remember, what will HELP the situation with this system is that the DGZ is going to very very low (for us outside the mtns) around the 850mb level. That will def. help.
njbarrineau
Member
Remember it like it was yesterday! And shortly thereafter on January 10, 2011, we got walloped with one of the best storms I remember in recent history. Out of school for a week! Also a Nina pattern I believe.
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I’ve looked at plenty of soundings on the hrrr and many some impressive omega in them (1- to -3) near those snow bands in the Carolinas, that would be interesting
Nam is less impressive with lower dewpoints/ dry low levels which kill it, it shows some reflectivity but the dry air is a killer, atp something between the hrrr/nam is possible with flurries and more realistic
Latest from the FFC:
The synoptic models are in pretty good agreement with the timing of
the strong frontal system. The front looks to be approaching the NW
corner of the state right around 12Z and then quickly progressing
eastward through the early afternoon. The 12Z NAM soundings do not
show much potential for wintry precipitation ahead of the front. The
potential increases significantly along and behind the front, where
the coldest air will be. Strong energy in the mid levels is
associated with this system, so do do think any available moisture
behind the front will be squeezed out. In the far north, this should
be mostly an RA=>IP=>SN transition. Further south towards the metro,
with the strong dynamic forcing aloft and lingering mid level
moisture around 8-10kft and very shallow surface moisture, a few
flurries are possible. (Flurries by definition do not accumulate.)
The synoptic models are in pretty good agreement with the timing of
the strong frontal system. The front looks to be approaching the NW
corner of the state right around 12Z and then quickly progressing
eastward through the early afternoon. The 12Z NAM soundings do not
show much potential for wintry precipitation ahead of the front. The
potential increases significantly along and behind the front, where
the coldest air will be. Strong energy in the mid levels is
associated with this system, so do do think any available moisture
behind the front will be squeezed out. In the far north, this should
be mostly an RA=>IP=>SN transition. Further south towards the metro,
with the strong dynamic forcing aloft and lingering mid level
moisture around 8-10kft and very shallow surface moisture, a few
flurries are possible. (Flurries by definition do not accumulate.)
I just noticed that they have brined 41 through Cartersville. I guess the DOT guys needed something to do.
Yeah, they have brined HWY 225 in Murray County as well.
WWA for 1-2 for areas along the escarpment....ill take it....i will say GSP has some of the best METs in the country imo very hard region to forecast if not in the top five in the country.
ATLwxfan
Member
My pants is still bursting over tha hrrr run, just your casual 8.2C low level LR, 100 joules+ of SBcape and DGZ down to 850mb, is this the southeast or Colorado ? Lol 
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All hands on deck...bring it!!
That would probably produce about 25-30:1 ratio snow. This sounding is not far off KCLT’s during the January 2003 storm. 8.5 inches of snow in Charlotte with only .27 liquid equivalent.