Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)

[Clem282340]

Wow!!

It surely increased a good bit in sc as well

 

[RollTide18]

Weatherbell's maps look much less crazy than COD's.
View attachment 59399View attachment 59400

Even with the more realistic Weatherbell map, that's a really nice increase

 

[superjames1992]

That can't be correct? Looks like it has a jacked up snow parameter or something?

I think it’s probably counting 6 hr precip using the P-type at the end of the 6 hr window, which will give way too much snow on a situation like this. In reality, all of the 6 hr precip might’ve fallen before temps cooled off enough, and it could all be rain (or at least most of it). At least that’s what I think is going on there...

 

[weatherfide]

That can't be correct? Looks like it has a jacked up snow parameter or something?

I know! Or someone at NCEP is playing a holiday joke. I'm looking for a repeat of the 11/30 flurry fest. That would be a huge win for me!

 

[Storm5]

Wow!!

That’s not correct . Not even close


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[RVD]

There's 30 there and 20 on COD

COD has the old GEFS, then. The newer version (went operational earlier this year) has 30 members and uses the FV3 core, while the older GEFS version is based on the pre-FV3 GFS, which hasn't been operational since 2019. They're two different models, and the new version (Weatherbell) performs much better. So do not use the COD maps, as nice as they look.

NOAA upgrades Global Ensemble Forecast System

Foundation for weather forecast models gets a big boost from the FV3

www.noaa.gov

 

[SD]

Weatherbell's maps look much less crazy than COD's.
View attachment 59399View attachment 59400

This seems legit and not bad

 

[WXinCanton]

Kuchera is higher than 10:1 on pivotal. Ratios for the win.

 

[weatherfide]

Even with the more realistic Weatherbell map, that's a really nice increase

Yeah, you get what you pay for, for sure! I'm discounting the GEFS snowfall totals entirely, for the record. Just thought it was interesting to note how wrong it can be. I wish it was true, though.

 

[accu35]

Geez that map is so bad/overdone, I wonder why it overdoes it tho, 6hr panels ?

I still like it lol

 

[malak05]

I think it’s probably counting 6 hr precip using the P-type at the end of the 6 hr window, which will give way too much snow on a situation like this. In reality, all of the 6 hr precip might’ve fallen before temps cooled off enough, and it could all be rain (or at least most of it). At least that’s what I think is going on there...

Yeah all mesoscale details that probably won't be in scope until within 24 hours of events.
The SE has a storm and the SE has some legit cold coming always in the details will cold keep up or fall behind always the same story.

 

[Flotown]

Weatherbell's maps look much less crazy than COD's.
View attachment 59399View attachment 59400

Weatherbell's maps look much less crazy than COD's.
View attachment 59399View attachment 59400

Definitely looks more realistic...I'll take an inch in a sec and be happy!

 

[weatherfide]

Kuchera is higher than 10:1 on pivotal. Ratios for the win.

Flurries, probably. The 11/30 event actually had light snow showers that dusted some places around town. I'd love to see it again!

 

[Ethan80963]

Weatherbell's maps look much less crazy than COD's.
View attachment 59399View attachment 59400

Weathermodels even less enthused

 

[Tarheel1]

Weatherbell's maps look much less crazy than COD's.
View attachment 59399View attachment 59400

That Upstate SC snowhole, flexing on em like JB

 

[accu35]

If the gefs is to be true, then you can look for some more changes on the gfs today

 

[accu35]

College DuPage for the win!!

 

[tucker]

Chattanooga looking like it will see flurries... I'll take it for Christmas Eve/ Christmas.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[LovingGulfLows]

I think it’s probably counting 6 hr precip using the P-type at the end of the 6 hr window, which will give way too much snow on a situation like this. In reality, all of the 6 hr precip might’ve fallen before temps cooled off enough, and it could all be rain (or at least most of it). At least that’s what I think is going on there...

That's exactly what is happening here. I would totally discount the weenie maps the GEFS is spitting out. Really poor algorithms from COD when it comes to precip types. Something they should fix in the future. Same with Tropicaltidbits. No snow is going to fall from the main band ahead of the cold front.