Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)

[Parker]

That gatlinburg forecast for the elevation of the cabin we stayed at a few weeks ago ?

 

[malak05]

The NAM and 3K NAM are not far from the RAP.... They NAMs look like a mixture of components from the RAP/HRRR with backend changeover and then banding snow showers

 

[Stephenb888]

All I know is if these snow bands pop up in the same areas that thunderstorms usually pop up in the summer time then I may be in a good spot. Cause they ALWAYS seem to pop up in a Anderson.

 

[Snowfan]

NAM says nada for tomorrow.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

NAM says nada for tomorrow.

Wonder why they are so different. Nam is probably right tbh

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[ForsythSnow]

This is a sounding from the RAP (not that it's super valuable) for my area in the backend snow. The HRRR 13Z looks more intense than 12Z FWIW as well.

 

[accu35]

12Z HRRR pretty much shows scattered flurries for everyone in the southeast. Not bad for Christmas day

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Not everyone in the southeast will see a flurry

 

[AJ1013]

12Z HRRR pretty much shows scattered flurries for everyone in the southeast. Not bad for Christmas day

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I’m getting snow!? Woohoo! Score!!!!

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

I’m getting snow!? Woohoo! Score!!!!

Well common sense tells you florida will not get snow. I used to live there and I know lol

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[SimeonNC]

NAM says nada for tomorrow.

It does show some flurries over parts of Eastern NC, I think it's coming around to an HRRR like solution.

 

[AJ1013]

Well common sense tells you florida will not get snow. I used to live there and I know lol

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Aw man. Thanks for getting my hopes up

I really thought I had it in the bag. All i needed was the forecast low of 43F to bust by about 10 degrees and find some moisture. Easy money!

 

[BufordWX]

The 13z HRRR is all for that change over this evening. I will believe when I see it though.

 

[malak05]

So now we have recent runs were changeover comes on backend in extreme east AL/West GA for RAP/HRRR and is very close to that on NAMs hmm

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Someone go park their camper up at Newfound Gap. Gonna be a good one. -15+ wind chills

 

[ATLwxfan]

The 13z HRRR is all for that change over this evening. I will believe when I see it though.View attachment 59850

Looks to be really brief. This front is racing through.


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[Ron Burgundy]

Little snow band popping in NE LA? ?

 

[tramadoc]

Someone go park their camper up at Newfound Gap. Gonna be a good one. -15+ wind chills View attachment 59851

I’m headed west from the Cumberland Gap to Johnson City, Tennessee.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

That gatlinburg forecast for the elevation of the cabin we stayed at a few weeks ago ?
View attachment 59849

Gatlinburg is going to be magical later today and tonight.

 

[BufordWX]

Looks to be really brief. This front is racing through.


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Yeah, that’s why I have my doubts on it happening. A race between temperatures and precipitation almost always results in the precipitation winning around here. A very brief change over to a little snow or sleet could happen though.

 

[Snowfan]

Little snow band popping in NE LA? ?

View attachment 59852

I think that's virga.

 

[malak05]

Looks to be really brief. This front is racing through.


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It will be interesting to see that Trend today and if models and real-time monitoring of Meso show that potential even if brief the totals will be solid for that short window not including any potential snow showers bands after main front

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Little snow band popping in NE LA? ?

View attachment 59852

Virga rippage. Just goes to show how frigid this airmass is.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Got burned BAD on a band changing over in early 2019. Don’t get your hopes up but let it be a surprise if it happens. I’d give it a 10% chance at best.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

What does snow even look like when it’s 0 degrees outside? I need to see that once before I die.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

What does snow even look like when it’s 0 degrees outside? I need to see that once before I die.

Probably good ratios !

 

[Snowfan]

Personally on the changeover to all snow on the FROPA, I don't think there will be enough time for it to change over to all snow. I'm more excited about tonight's snow flurries then today's cold-chasing moisture.

 

[tramadoc]

What does snow even look like when it’s 0 degrees outside? I need to see that once before I die.

It’s very fine, light, and powdery. Kinda looks like what freezer burn looks like if that makes any sense.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

C o n v e c t i v e

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Getting some flurry activity here this morning. Temps in the low 20s with a brisk wind.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

It’s very fine, light, and powdery. Kinda looks like what freezer burn looks like if that makes any sense.

Probably much easier to shovel also.

 

[ATLwxfan]

I think that's virga.

This will be said multiple times in the next 24 hours.


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[Dewpoint Dan]

One of my favorite weather activities is watching temps crash during the day. Should be a good 15-20 degrees colder in GA this afternoon than right now.

 

[NoSnowATL]

51/ Mod Rain

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Forecast high temp for Bangor, ME on Christmas is 57. Forecast high for Orlando is 54 ! How many years can you say Christmas was colder in FL than ME ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Honest wonder what type of rates you typical see with soundings like this, in my years of living here, I’ve never seen them quite like this, they look good to my eye tho

 

[NoSnowATL]

 

[AJ1013]

Hot and humid here today. Already 78F with a dew of 70F. As for 0F snow I’ve seen it countless times. The flakes are tiny and it’s so light and fluffy you don’t shovel it, you sweep it.

 

[Snowfan]

 

[Jon]

View attachment 59848
HRRR 2m RH is sitting in the 50-60% range area wide, that’s honestly not that bad. Just for some perspective and food for thought, your average summer day that produces popcorn thunderstorms in the afternoon with temps in upper 80s-low 90s with dew points in the low-mid 60s in the Carolinas comes out to a low level Relative humidity close to 50% which is comparable if not lower than the background low level RH this event will have. Given that any snow we see tomorrow will be convective and characterized by steep low level lapse rates with near absolute instability in the low-mid levels, I think this is a somewhat valid comparison although the additional water vapor in the summer does make parcels more buoyant. Starting out with RH values equal to or greater than 50-60% are good enough to get the job done for many here imo.

So by get the job done I’m still confused with what we’re taking about here. Flurries or are you saying epic convective snow bursts with decent to heavy rates? Sounds like you’re kinda bullish here. If you were to forecast the event, what’s the most likely outcome?

 

[BufordWX]