• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)

RGEM suggests North ATL suburbs can change from rain to snow/mix during the frontal precip. Just imagine if the 850s could crash just a little bit faster. Still quite a powerful front to change the temps so quickly.

RDPSMA_prec_ptype_022.png
 
Take 441 all the way from Cherokee to Pigeon Forge! Up and over NewFound Gap. Do not take the yuppie route down I40!
I’ve had some close calls there over the years. Call me old but I may take 40 if I had a choice. Or be a real man and take the Cherahola Skyway.
 
The soundings don’t scream over-performing system here. Very dry, isothermal where it matters — but dry lower levels worry me. Dry as a bone from 900mb down. Such a cold airmass needs a heavy convective band to overcome and we may see one, but I doubt it will be widespread like the HRRR shows. Need to expect flurries, anything more is a bonus for sure.

b072f93c24246ac74edda2ff6702f644.jpg

Yeah, kind of my concern as well. This screams flurries.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
The soundings don’t scream over-performing system here. Very dry, isothermal where it matters — but dry lower levels worry me. Dry as a bone from 900mb down. Such a cold airmass needs a heavy convective band to overcome and we may see one, but I doubt it will be widespread like the HRRR shows. Need to expect flurries, anything more is a bonus for sure.

b072f93c24246ac74edda2ff6702f644.jpg

That particular sounding isn't dry though, it's nearly saturated wrt ice (which requires a lower saturation vapor pressure than liquid water btw), it's better to look at an area-averaged sounding which shows the potential for sub-cloud evaporation but it even still that doesn't look all that impressive to me and given that these showers if they develop will be convective in nature w/ absolute instability up to 650-700mb, any precip that falls it'll be heavy will have to overcome a subcloud layer that's actually pretty shallow & relatively moist (keep in mind we're cold so dews in the 20s means RH is actually high)

1608783456286.png
 
Last edited:
That particular sounding isn't dry though, it's saturated wrt ice (which requires a lower saturation vapor pressure than liquid water), it's better to look at an area-averaged sounding which shows the potential for sub-cloud evaporation but it even still that doesn't look all that impressive to me and given that these showers if they develop will be convective in nature w/ absolute instability up to 650-700mb, any precip that falls it'll be heavy will have to overcome a subcloud layer that's actually pretty shallow & relatively moist (keep in mind we're cold so dews in the 20s means RH is actually high)

View attachment 59823

Here's another sounding (area-averaged) from the NAM showing that low-level dry layer really isn't that dry or deep. Low-level relative humidity is 82% and the sub-cloud evaporating layer is only a few thousand feet deep. I'm really not worried about low-level dry air based on what I'm seeing from the CAMS, at least from models I tend to trust anyways

1608783750816.png
 
Take with massive grain of salt and even then I would say this is likely overdone.View attachment 59828
These are also 10:1 ratios higher ratios mean more fun? Also with all this talk about dry air this dry air that ... almost every time I hear problems about dry air when the event ends up taking place dry air always seems to lose the fighting battle .. I always see us getting moist quicker than models show ... I’m not too worried either tbh from strictly a living here for 15 years and noticing the trends
 
Chattanooga will cash that in right now... no questions asked.
Ooh yeah... I still confused around here. Think we see off and on snow showers, but no accumulation. Like MRX keeps saying. Don't really see a mechanism for low end forecasts to bust high. That said, Temps are expected to go down to 32 by sunset tomorrow, and not get back about freezing until sometime Mid-morning Sat. And yet, lowest temp expected only around 20-22 at the airport. Can't buy a teen low even with this potent front.
 
I’m going to be leaving 2pm or so Christmas Day to go to pigeon forge. I’ll take I40 there anyone think we will have any problems getting there? I’m hoping what snow falls is still there when we get there!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
U shud be ok but watch out for the gorge in Haywood it will probably be rippin.
 
That particular sounding isn't dry though, it's nearly saturated wrt ice (which requires a lower saturation vapor pressure than liquid water btw), it's better to look at an area-averaged sounding which shows the potential for sub-cloud evaporation but it even still that doesn't look all that impressive to me and given that these showers if they develop will be convective in nature w/ absolute instability up to 650-700mb, any precip that falls it'll be heavy will have to overcome a subcloud layer that's actually pretty shallow & relatively moist (keep in mind we're cold so dews in the 20s means RH is actually high)

View attachment 59823

Interesting. So it shows potential but it’s saturated with ice? Help me out here... I’m not used to reading such funky soundings. What is the sounding that I posted showing is literally occurring? Flurries reaching the ground? Connective fatties reaching the ground? It still seems like this moisture will have to overcome dry lower levels to me.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top