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Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)

Nam actually has some back side flurries. Interesting but probably inaccurate

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Icon has been showing the clipper feature further west than the gfs past few runs
 
Wouldn't rule out some very light moisture lingering around Christmas day in south Bama
icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_29.png
 
I can't seem to post college DuPage, but gfs has snow shower deep into Alabama this run. Even have .4 snow cover around Tuscaloosa area .can someone post that image?
 
Loganelliott99 said:
00z GFS actually isn't bad at all for alabama and Georgia. Even has snow showers in the piedmont of nc

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Don’t be fooled by the 6hr precip maps 2EEF7F31-9F75-485B-A782-87CF801FA319.png
It’s headed the right way tho if you want some flurries, problem is this is worse for the severe weather threatD38D7BAF-FD0A-41F3-A2A4-E4F88866BB00.gif
 
winterwx said:
NAM looking better this run for north Alabama and north GA! View attachment 59254
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Hmmm, I was looking at the relative humidity in the different layers in the column and it's quite moist at H850 for quite a while, but kinda dry at H700. Probably flurries at best on the back end. RGEM actually looks realistic when I look deeper into the models. Both NAM/RGEM agree there will be leftover moisture on the backend. Sadly, can't look deeper into the relative humidity profile of the RGEM past 48 hours.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Hmmm, I was looking at the relative humidity in the different layers in the column and it's quite moist at H850 for quite a while, but kinda dry at H700. Probably flurries at best on the back end. RGEM actually looks realistic when I look deeper into the models. Both NAM/RGEM agree there will be leftover moisture on the backend. Sadly, can't look deeper into the relative humidity profile of the RGEM past 48 hours.
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True I noticed the same thing during the November 30th event but as it got closer it trended wetter... will be interesting to see how this plays out!
 
accu35 said:
GEFSSE_prec_meansnacc_078.png
Huge increase for Central/North Al
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Say what you want about the GEFS. It hasn't budged and had been showing relatively the same for the last several days. I know it's probably wrong but most times it budges but it hasn't so far this time. I'm holding hope lol

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winterwx said:
True I noticed the same thing during the November 30th event but as it got closer it trended wetter... will be interesting to see how this plays out!
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If the H700 layer can trend more moist, then parts of AL/GA could have an event similar to what NE AL experienced on November 30th. I like how humid the 925 and 850 layers look...maybe with more lift, you can moisten up the higher levels of the column.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Hmmm, I was looking at the relative humidity in the different layers in the column and it's quite moist at H850 for quite a while, but kinda dry at H700. Probably flurries at best on the back end. RGEM actually looks realistic when I look deeper into the models. Both NAM/RGEM agree there will be leftover moisture on the backend. Sadly, can't look deeper into the relative humidity profile of the RGEM past 48 hours.
Click to expand...
In this case since the DGZ will be much lower than normal (look at 850mb) for moisture since temps there will be around -10c or lower
 
y’all gotta remember the GFS uses 6 hour maps, for example this isn’t doing much other than some drizzle, 6hr precip panels still show moisture where areas have column temps below freezing supportive of snow, when in reality its dry, don’t get sucked in by these 6hr maps, there misleading 738AB1F0-237A-4BAD-B734-D65E23915FE1.png
 
I will note tho that the GFS has been going the right direction in regards with the tilt and digging with the trough for some flurry action 69615EA9-0489-4EC2-860A-394154FD5C01.gif
 
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