• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)

Gfs keeps trending the wrong way . The GEFS has followed the last few runs . Christmas miracle is taking on a new meaning


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Almost always these kinds of situations trend the wrong way. Models in general, and the GFS in particular, tend to dig too much and tend to be too cold and too robust with rain --> snow in the medium term. Almost always.

One way to tell if something different than the above might take places is if you have a strengthening west-based -NAO and/or a spiking PNA. Otherwise, you get cold and snowy (relatively speaking) solutions that end up verifying milder and wetter.
 
CMC shows some snow showers in AL/GA on early Christmas morning.
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_19.png
 
CMC is trending back towards a look that’s better for a anafront, not even happy lol I wanted a cutoff over a anafront 65561DE3-174C-485A-843B-26D671FAD846.gif9340E253-C008-4EE0-B525-B50400CF715C.gif
 
We need a low to form ideally down near Charleston about 50-100 miles off shore. I’m going to be in Florence,SC for Christmas so I need it to form far enough offshore that we do not have the warm layer coming in, and mucking everything up.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Back
Top