Snownut
Member
We need to wait until the Nam is in range. Once it comes into range then things will start to come together on what will happen
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Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Ron Burgundy
Member
The weather world begins and ends at the NC border, brother.
gefs looks better for areas further west and worst for areas further east, which makes more sense
The weather world begins and ends at the NC border, brother.
No kidding
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18z
00z
00z
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Perspective wise I'll say that's an improvement for GA, TN, and AL and a worse look for NC.
Storm5
Member
Without seeing the members it already looks skewed by one or two big members
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If your in E TN/N AL/N GA/WNC (mainly and especially the mountains) gotta like your chances of maybe some scattered flurries, it’s no lock but there’s a shot, mountains do well with these
Here’s the 30 member 
NCSNOW
Member
0z is better for NC east esp compared to 18z. Esp northern foothills
Jessy89
Member
I was going to pigeon forge on the 26th. But today I went ahead and booked the 25th to. I won’t be able to get up there till 5-530pm but I think snow that does fall ain’t going anywhere.
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iGRXY
Member
Been said if the CFS is showing snow, go ahead and get your bathing suits out and get you some sun.
BlueRidgeFolklore
Member
John1122
Member
UK was vastly improved West of the Apps vs 12z. Also has an interesting strip from north Alabama to Georgia.
That clipper
several more gefs members like that second wave with the clipper. The UK might be catching wind of that with that interesting stripe in Alabama and Georgia.. wouldn’t take much to squeeze out that moisture with the amount of cold in place and a ripe snow growth layer!
Euro looks amazing, lol 
Dunno if we have enough time and with our luck it’s likely not doing much but this is interesting, not far from a coastal look 
The wheels are falling off, worst EPS run yet for everyone 
You most likely will see some snow showers/flurries in Asheville!
Long range nan is already pain, another cold rain rain to brag about this year 
Ron Burgundy
Member
Aaand FFC has removed all snow wording from my grid forecast. Sigh...
The cold front is still a story in itself; NAM also shows ~20 degree drop with the frontal passage.
Mid afternoon Christmas Eve:
Mid afternoon Christmas Eve:
24 hours trend on the GEFS plumes for KHSV has been positive with a slight increase in the mean and a significant increase in the number of members contributing.
Saturday morning will be close to the coldest temp of 2020 at many locations
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
GFS not too shabby here.
There are members on this forum that will still see some snowfall on Christmas so for those it is not a waste of anything.
Man, I was so hoping to be wrong about this storm. But like I originally thought and posted- this just isn’t our storm. It’s been since a crappy year and I thought maybe, just maybe we’d have a Christmas miracle. And as quickly as it started showing up in modeling it got yanked away just as quickly. Always seems to happen during this timeframe too. Winter is far from over and I’m sure we will get more shots down the road. This just isn’t one of them. Unless you live in the mountains or up north- that is. Maybe things will shift again but I’m not letting my hopes up, at all. Lol. It’s too difficult to watch.
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GEFS not giving up just yet...here's the 12z
PARSONBROWN
Member
Cold and some snow showers and flurries all I need Christmas Eve/Day. I ain't complaining. This is a bonus this time of year!!
MamaJen
Member
So, it looks to me like the most likely scenario is we here in N Georgia get a fair bit of rain late the 23rd into the 24th, followed by pretty bitter cold on Christmas Day. Maybe flurries, probably no big snows. But what about ice on the roads, will that be a concern if really cold air follows rain? James Spann mentioned this morning that, at least over in Alabama, low dew points would dry everything quickly and ice wouldn’t be a concern. I’m planning to go to midnight mass for Christmas and am a little worried about potentially driving home at 2am with icy roads. Do all you knowledgable folks think that ice might be a concern for Christmas travellers?
Ron Burgundy
Member
I think I read somewhere not to live and die by each model run. For some reason I can never remember that.
Should be a fair amount of wind and increasingly low dew points to get dry the roads. Places that pond could freeze I suppose but we arent overly cold over the next few days so the road sfc should be fairly warm
ATLwxfan
Member
I don’t know about you all, but I’ve always said you’ve gotta wait for the WRF to come into range.
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Ignoring the stuff on the back edge of the precip shield the Canadian is starting to pick up on some flurries
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The ECMWF is a no go & is probably correct in that regard. Been saying this for days but unless you're in TN or the mtns of NC, you're way more likely to see severe than wintry weather from this.
