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Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)

Webberweather53 said:
Ok bird brain... I love how you seem to know several days out down to the hour when these snow showers will occur.
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confidence low on exact hour but high that’s it’s up to half a day earlier than models show. Most systems this year have hit several hours earlier than suggested. Still mostly rain event but I see much lower chance near zero for actual Christmas Day. It’s the 24th imo
 
Webberweather53 said:
Low level cold getting blocked by the mountains. Lol it’s dead Jim
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I have to agree with this at the moment. Looks to me like just a frontal passage. We need a wave to form along the front to our south after the front passes to slow it down and throw some moisture back into the cold air. Otherwise it will not get cold enough, quick enough, east of the mountains. We have to see some radical changes in the set-up. Is it possible? sure... but as modeled today, it's going to take some work.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Unless you’re in Tennessee or the mountains, nothing to get excited about here for snow. Until the gefs isn’t the only model strongly supporting some snow outside of these areas... yawn.
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Sorry bro but I’m doing the opposite of yawning for the slight potential to see flakes on Christmas
 
Flotown said:
Huntsville nws being pretty bold bout chances for SOME snow.would share but I'm too dumb to know how ?
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“
The bigger story with this event revolves around how quickly the
starkly colder airmass can make it into the region with any lingering
moisture around. There is an overlap of plunging temps, lingering
moisture in the snow growth region, and ideal temperature
profiles/soundings, with the best overlap occurring between 00Z-06Z
Thursday. This "event" will likely end as flurries by sunrise
Christmas morning. This is not an ideal setup (quick-changeover-
post-fropa)for our area to get blasted with tons of snow, as some
model members have teased/advertised. Not to say we can`t be
surprised, but our snowfall totals are much, much lower, and on the
order of half an inch or so for much of the area. Values increase in
the higher terrain locations of Northeastern Alabama and Southern
Middle TN up to 1", but that`s about it. Some models are going
bonkers with the snow amounts thanks to a developing low moving
across our area, which would introduce a trowal-like feature, and
THAT would provide more in the way of a white Christmas for the area
(which is technically 1" of measurable snow on the ground). But, I`m
not sold on this solution just yet, and the more likely scenario
involves a changeover of snow as the cold air arrives, translating to
about half an inch of snow for most of the area, give or take a
couple of tenths on either side of that. Could we see higher than 1"
totals in the terrain: absolutely. Terrain-enhanced lift isn`t always
latched onto by the models, so it`s not out of the realm of
possibility that someone ends up with 1.5+ inches when all of this is
said and done. It happened with the last event, that outside of the
Wheeler-Lake-effect-snow, locations like Sewanee, TN got just over an
inch of snow when almost no one else did. So, I say that to say this:
will snowflakes fall: yes. Will it be enough to do anything with: the
jury`s still out on that one, so stay tuned!”
 
If your life will not be complete without snow on Christmas Day, jump on 441 and drive to Newfound Gap. You will see snow either from the anafront or the clipper. They will not get shutout from both.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
If your life will not be complete without snow on Christmas Day, jump on 441 and drive to Newfound Gap. You will see snow either from the anafront or the clipper. They will not get shutout from both.
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Newfound gap between Cherokee and Gatlinbug will def score. Great location to be for guaranteed annual snow. Its like NC's Valdez Alaska
 
I'd be paying close attention to this if I were on the nc/va coast
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Bruh the gefs is better for areas East of the mountains but a bit worse for areas west vs the 18z, I just don’t know what it’s seeing.
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I noticed that as well. The GEFS is either onto something or just flat out horrible. Because it's been trending better for areas east of the mountains for a while

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Loganelliott99 said:
Yeah more than likely so. But I do think the central/eastern part of the state have a chance at seeing some snow showers

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GSP does say Sn showers is possible for areas around I-40 so it’s possible, lots of flurry potential with this pattern, I just don’t really buy the gefs, while some members develop a second wave, what OP model has done that ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Bruh the gefs is better for areas East of the mountains but a bit worse for areas west vs the 18z, I just don’t know what it’s seeing.
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Go with what this setup usually turns out to be. Frontal passage. Trailing clipper is the curveball here with a chance to create a late blooming situation just off the coast. Putting that at about 2% right now. Im still putting everyone on this board on flurry watch because this is a really cold airmass with a lot of moisture around.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Go with what this setup usually turns out to be. Frontal passage. Trailing clipper is the curveball here with a chance to create a late blooming situation just off the coast. Putting that at about 2% right now. Im still putting everyone on this board on flurry watch because this is a really cold airmass with a lot of moisture around.
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Agree, a flurry is a win anyways, expectations should be held to that or even below
 
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