The wrong direction we go 
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Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Almost always these kinds of situations trend the wrong way. Models in general, and the GFS in particular, tend to dig too much and tend to be too cold and too robust with rain --> snow in the medium term. Almost always.
One way to tell if something different than the above might take places is if you have a strengthening west-based -NAO and/or a spiking PNA. Otherwise, you get cold and snowy (relatively speaking) solutions that end up verifying milder and wetter.
CMC is a bit further north through 60 hours. 
CMC shows some snow showers in AL/GA on early Christmas morning.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
GEFS still looks solid
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CMC is trending back towards a look that’s better for a anafront, not even happy lol I wanted a cutoff over a anafront 
Bro what 
Stormsfury
Member
Is the energy we're looking for even being fully sampled yet is my question?
Shaggy
Member
I'd take a few of those for us eastern guys to cash in on some flakes but I wont get sucked in!!
The energy is supposed to enter the US in about 36-42 hours. I think once it enters the US, it will get fully sampled.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Makes sense why some members are so good 
ATLwxfan
Member
It’s all over the place y’all. Imma wait to get NAM’d. These runs are useless.
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Only if we could somehow get a second wave to form around the SC coast then that would be real nice
Clem282340
Member
What does the bottom picture show and where did you get it from
WPCs chance of 0.25 liquid equivalent of snow/ip
Just don’t know how I feel about this one, I don’t like the type of setup and gefs is on a island here
carolinachaos
Member
We need a low to form ideally down near Charleston about 50-100 miles off shore. I’m going to be in Florence,SC for Christmas so I need it to form far enough offshore that we do not have the warm layer coming in, and mucking everything up.
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Six Mile Wx
Member
Low in the Bearing Sea?
smast16
Member
We know in the backs of our minds how this is going to end, But as someone said earlier its freaking Christmas dangit, and we're going to hang onto every single last ensemble member...
Christmas flurry = w after the way 2020 has been
No I don’t think so
Am I the only one that feels those ensembles are completely useless with their precip types? Last week it was like 15 of 20 that had ZR over the upstate and even many had it down to CAE. Didn't even come close to verifying. Many times last year it failed too.
Might be
100% Correct. Trying to hold onto individual panels or thinking they **might** be right is wishcasting at it's best.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Nobody mentioned it but the NAM seems to be a bit like how the GFS was a day ago at the end of its run in terms of energy. I get it's the NAM but it's notable at least to see how it varies.
Storm5
Member
Someone post the GEFS please
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After a completely abysmal CMCE run last night, it’s better at H5 at 12
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12z
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12z
Lol poor SC
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12z
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Lol poor SC
Storm5
Member
Surprisingly so far the euro took a step towards the GFS
the NAM nailed the November 30th event.
The “king” ??
Back to a anafront on the euro 
Montanasnow30
Member
Is this a good thing for us in the Deep South?
Much more energy consolidated
. Well crap LOL
It’s a step in the right direction if you want a anafront, lol
Euro much worse with moisture this run. Ugh!