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Wintry ❄The Christmas Miracle❄(12-24/12-25)
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Once again, misleading
Certainly could be some flurries tho
Certainly could be some flurries tho
LovingGulfLows
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Keep in mind, instantaneous precip maps show the radar at the exact moment, but the precip maps will show precip in the 6 hours prior to that moment(hence why you also see heavy rain in south GA, but the radar shows the heavy rain is well past that area.
Thanks for pointing this out, pretty crucial. At the same time it seems we have some model consensus with daddy left to run in a couple of hours.
Here’s the slightly better 3h 
LovingGulfLows
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Hmmm, I think the GFS when you look deeper into it's moisture profiles looks a lot like this....it shows moisture getting into SC from the backend energy, even if it doesn't necessarily show it on the precip maps. I wouldn't be that surprised if parts of SC got flurries on the backend.
Montanasnow30
Member
See now I have a reason to fly back home from Montana to Tuscaloosa for Christmas if that happens
CMC is definitely more ideal at H5, would probably be some Convective snow showers underneath that deep H5 cutoff for much of the areas around the base of it, GFS is farther north and isn’t as good
RVD
Meteorology Student
I posted the long range NAM trending south/more amped in the severe thread, but it’s also good for this. If we can get this upper level low far enough south and well tilted, we could get some clipper snow showers Christmas day. Maybe.
NorthGaWinter4
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Time to spend Christmas with Dolly, at Ober GatlinburgHuge increase for Central/North Al
I wouldn't count on them or say they're likely, but I think backside flurries aren't out of the question for us.
UKMET 
IMO there would probably be more flurries/snow showers then it shows under this strong cutoff, can clearly see the packet of moist 700s under it,here’s a sounding under it as well, clearly shows a sounding supportive of snow showers/flurries
IMO there would probably be more flurries/snow showers then it shows under this strong cutoff, can clearly see the packet of moist 700s under it,here’s a sounding under it as well, clearly shows a sounding supportive of snow showers/flurries
I think these 6 hr maps are deceiving. I'm not sure how much backside snow the GFS/GGEM are actually showing, even west of the Apps. In many cases, to me it looks like precip has already cleared out of the area for the most part before the changeover happens, but the clown maps aren't showing this. The trends are good still, but we need to see more.
I still think backside flurries and snow showers are doable for many, but some of these snow maps I'm seeing just don't look realistic at all to me.
I still think backside flurries and snow showers are doable for many, but some of these snow maps I'm seeing just don't look realistic at all to me.
MotoWeatherman
Meteorologist
I wonder how they come up with this map. Looks nothing like weatherbell gfs end mapHuge increase for Central/North Al
Exactly this, those TT 6 hour maps are stupidly deceiving
MotoWeatherman
Meteorologist
I’m assuming COD uses the same thing TT does with 6hr maps, so it’s sorta deceiving on there, as that over-inflates the mean
Lee side trough potential? ??One of my favorites
17 degree difference in temps... will CMC ever 'fix' its cold bias?
CMC ens is pretty bullish about that clipper 
No go for a flizzard 
accu35
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And so far it's pretty much alone on that. Other models show the flizzard plus ENS
Euro usually gets it right at 84 hours out.. hope this is one of the few times it's wrong: 
Teen lows are tough to come by in Dec these days.. This is a pretty strong Arctic front almost a third of the way through Met Winter, and still whiffs: 
Jeremy Camp
Member
Looks about right, 6z NAM:
John1122
Member
06z GFS pops a low in Eastern Alabama and sends it up the Lee side of the Apps where it crushed Tennessee. The Canadian/RGEM/GFS/GFSV16/NAM all pop the low well south of Tennessee, the Euro/UKIE pop it toward Bluefield, WV the last couple of runs. Where it forms has major consequences for Tennessee/Georgia/Alabama.
MRX still talking 'uncertainty' but the certainty is that they will always forecast 0.0 inches of snow for the Southern Tn Valley... lol
looks like Athens/Sweetwater North get clobbered.. I've seen this happen before. (Mrx busting on the low end, I mean. )
John1122
Member
MRX seems to have blended the UKIE and the Euro and are ignoring all other modeling.
GSP reintroduced a slight chance of rn/sn around 11pm-12am Christmas Eve
NorthGaWinter4
Member
nam gives some flurries/light snow showers to north ga!
Some of the soundings from northern AL/Ga late Christmas Eve don't look bad on the 12k
Our pinpoint NWS forecast has the transition to "mixed precip" beginning after 1PM on Christmas Eve. We've had one good "dusting to an inch" earlier this month already. I'm not writing this one off quite yet.
Earlier this month in the Ellijay area:
Earlier this month in the Ellijay area:
