Interesting that both AI gfs and euro hold precip over the longer on Thursday while the ops are more progressive
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Pattern Fab Feb
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NBAcentel
Member
It’s time to rage…. For a torch !! Gonna feel like summer in the 60s 
NBAcentel
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
At least soil temps will be cold, which will help provided we get some snow to actually fall. Warm soil temps + 32-34 degree temps makes it hard to get accumulations without heavy rates, but give us cold soil and maybe we can work with that, even if rates aren't great.
Pre-emergent was dropped 2 weeks ago by my yard guy. Dormantly sitting snug under a blanket of soft snow awaiting to attack that first warm attempt at weed germination
At this point, this threat kind of seems like a rain-to-mood flakes at the end; maybe we see a dusting / coating on elevated surfaces kind of thing. But, here's to hoping! It does seem like we may get the mid-levels to cool off enough for snow for the last tenth of an inch of liquid or so, but the BL looks like an issue and we don't have a lot of precip to waste cooling that off. Moreover, light snow at 34 degrees just isn't going to do it. But I'll be tracking it because I can't help myself. I suppose it's not implausible that this could trend to a coating - 2" kind of deal if the right pieces change places, but it's certainly not a favored solution.
Don’t forget the coastal plain, they got another one footer left this winter too!
Gfs and cmc holding moisture back on Thursday like the AI models now. Would probably be a rain to snow event for many
thoughts?
How you get out of this mess before March...going to take a lot of that Charlotte/Greensboro/PGV luck...but they can do it if anyone.
Time to tune up the lawn mowers and get the fertilizer ready to go.
Time to tune up the lawn mowers and get the fertilizer ready to go.
I'm still hesitant to believe this is going to materialize. It just hasn't so far this winter. There might be a thaw but pattern keeps on repeating.
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BHS1975
Member
Slider in the works
It's hard to say that this week's potential winter weather threat will amount to much besides some tail end of the event flakes for folks west of the mountains. Cold air chasing moisture is not a proven formula for success if you want winter weather in the Southeast.
As far as the general pattern for the rest of February, that is still up in the air. Models are hinting at a ridge developing in the Eastern part of the United States around the middle of the month and they are hard to dislodge once they set up. The models have been horrible at forecasting long range trends during this strange and abnormally cold winter so what they are telling us should not be taken as gospel.
As far as the general pattern for the rest of February, that is still up in the air. Models are hinting at a ridge developing in the Eastern part of the United States around the middle of the month and they are hard to dislodge once they set up. The models have been horrible at forecasting long range trends during this strange and abnormally cold winter so what they are telling us should not be taken as gospel.
Yall got any of them weathernext images for Thursday 
The EURO now has the low for Monroe dropping to -1. Tonight. Just curious to see the mets on here opinion of just how low it could go to over the snow pack
We got down to 7 in Matthews last night, would love to make a run at 0 with the snow cover
You need 2 inches of sleet. Cause we still got it from 8 days ago underneath all that snow. Ive never seen ice harden , and refuse to melt,let go like that stuff. Been so cold , so long , so that plays a big role. This snow will just evaporate in sun, regardless how cold it is.
I will say this, I love having a white landscape in the winter. So much more attractive than brown ground
blueheronNC
Member
I
It doesn’t depict any snow accum from this though
Yeah. We got down to 8 here just from getting about 2 hours of clear skies and the breeze was still up. A very solid snow pack with no bare ground here. If the wind stays calm, I think it could really bottom out tonight. Full moon tonight too, so I encourage anyone to go out and see just how bright it is outside tonight and here that distinct crunch of the packed powder
Hmmmmmm…
Mahomeless
Member
You’ve been cancelling winter for a month and that hasn’t worked out for you. I think I read 17 posts in a day where you went back and forth cancelling winter and predicting snow storms…it’s like watching a bi-polar ex from afar and just laughing.
rburrel2
Member
Having the long range NAM on your side always works out.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
What’s Google Model have to say? I’m never saying anything again unless that goat has it. It’s won it’s cred with me
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My area always seems to really perform in cold events, this morning got down to -0.2. Probably gonna go lower tonight, western York county sc
Mjo possibly getting into the IO is going to at least favor periods of western trough but it doesn't favor a SER. Maybe post mid month once/if the mjo can progress forward we can get into mid of a SER pattern. Until then I wouldn't be surprised if we had at least another shot or 2 through the 15th.
AlabamaWxWatcher
Member
This pattern has been absolutely brutal for Alabama in terms of winter weather. Central Alabama has seen some flurries and cold temps for the last 4-5 weeks. Ready for a pattern mixup.
Snowking2.0
Member
Snow for the carolina’s again same song and dance for the same areas on the NAM
Cosgrove is still convinced there's a legitimate wide-spread threat around Valentines Day. Many in the energy industry uses his service.
Canadian trying to destroy citrus crops tonight 
John1122
Member
High water content snow. This type vaporizes in the sun even if it's 25.
You guys had great winters while we watched from a far in recent winters . It’s good to take turns.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Winter wonderland in SW VA
rburrel2
Member
If we get a block to develop here and keep it undercut through the Atlantic… we will widespread winter storm again in mid-February, imo. Even with the not ideal pacific.(also won’t shock me to see the west coast improve as we get closer since that’s been the theme all winter).
Models seem pretty keyed in on developing that block there too.
Models seem pretty keyed in on developing that block there too.
That cold shot next weekend as modeled is as cold as any we've had during this cold snap in the carolinas and va