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Pattern Fab Feb

Moving was worth it then at least you didn't have to live this
Lol I've lived it enough times. You're going to get some good snow here in just a little bit. Probably get more than me in a 4th of the time.
 
Just a few more days of this cold snowless nightmare winter. We have a hostile pac developing my mid Feb, slams the door on any more snow chances for Raleigh, not that it even matters, doesn’t snow in any pattern. Avg highs surging toward 60F by end of Feb.

Going to be great. 🙏

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Just a few more days of this cold snowless nightmare winter. We have a hostile pac developing my mid Feb, slams the door on any more snow chances for Raleigh, not that it even matters, doesn’t snow in any pattern. Avg highs surging toward 60F by end of Feb.

Going to be great. 🙏

View attachment 193049

Would you stop already?! Your gonna jinx it!
 
Just a few more days of this cold snowless nightmare winter. We have a hostile pac developing my mid Feb, slams the door on any more snow chances for Raleigh, not that it even matters, doesn’t snow in any pattern. Avg highs surging toward 60F by end of Feb.

Going to be great. 🙏

View attachment 193049
What stage of the grieving process is this?
 
The final 20 days of winter begin today, with snow on the ground and a temperature of 13 degrees.

If we don't score within the next 10 days, if the ensembles are believed beyond day 10, then after this weekend, if no threats are on the horizon, then we wait and see if some of us can score an early spring storm in late February or early March.

Who knows, perhaps we can get back to some of those crazy runs the GFS was dreaming up a couple of days ago.
 
This upcoming pattern in Feb was something we saw to end Dec. A stout pac ridge sets up and it took 2-3 weeks to get out...and a fantastic pattern developed after. But, with this pattern in Feb developing by mid Feb that puts end of Feb at best and probably early March before it flips...if it flips.

This doesn't mean no events for the SE in Feb. Just discussing the pattern upcoming.


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We laugh at the CFS but what I've heard it's ok with pattern recognition. It shows a lot of troughing out west which would support what Kylog stated above. It also shows highs moving across the north US and signs of possible CAD events. So that may be what winter storms we might be dealing with this month.
 
We laugh at the CFS but what I've heard it's ok with pattern recognition. It shows a lot of troughing out west which would support what Kylog stated above. It also shows highs moving across the north US and signs of possible CAD events. So that may be what winter storms we might be dealing with this month.
The monthly version for Feb ran yesterday was pretty eye-candy-ish. It bounces a lot...as does the long range pattern representation.
 
I really do wonder how cold we could get tonight in CLT metro with basically 10-15” of snow blanketing the area. Skies should be clear and light winds. I have a feeling some outlying areas will make a run at 0
I would be surprised if there aren't some 0-5 degree temperatures in the outlying areas, which should be single digits in a lot of areas. And congratulations on a BIG SNOW. ☃️ ❄️❄️❄️❄️⛄
 
One thing to think about is the surface temps for this next event. They will be marginal for many areas (much different from yesterday). But the snow coverage to the north, may help make this a little more interesting. A rain turning to snow event, which normally is not as doable. So not excited about a big event, but some could see a couple of inches.
 
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12z GFS does show a rain to snow setup mid week, something to watch.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Looks like we have a legit shot at a novelty event with a small chance at a nuisance event later this week. All depends on how much we can sharpen the trough and still leave behind the base. Looks better for Raleigh vs CLT this time, for at least something small anyways IMG_3936.gifIMG_3937.gifIMG_3935.png
 
It doesn’t really see the heat dome well but you can kinda tell that it recognizes it somewhat and breaks it up prior to getting to the Carolina’s.
You guys in the western NC got a long ways to go this winter. It's been an active winter and I can't imagine it just dying today for places like western NC.
 
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