Pattern Fab Feb

[SD]

Interesting that both AI gfs and euro hold precip over the longer on Thursday while the ops are more progressive

 

[NBAcentel]

It’s time to rage…. For a torch !! Gonna feel like summer in the 60s

 

[NBAcentel]

Interesting that both AI gfs and euro hold precip over the longer on Thursday while the ops are more progressive

It’s honestly something that’s not far off from a quick incher for someone if you hold back the back end of the vort more and tilt it a bit more

 

[Webberweather53]

Looks like we have a legit shot at a novelty event with a small chance at a nuisance event later this week. All depends on how much we can sharpen the trough and still leave behind the base. Looks better for Raleigh vs CLT this time, for at least something small anyways View attachment 193234View attachment 193235View attachment 193236

Another winter storm this week?

Man, I'm tired grandpa.

 

[superjames1992]

One thing to think about is the surface temps for this next event. They will be marginal for many areas (much different from yesterday). But the snow coverage to the north, may help make this a little more interesting. A rain turning to snow event, which normally is not as doable. So not excited about a big event, but some could see a couple of inches.

At least soil temps will be cold, which will help provided we get some snow to actually fall. Warm soil temps + 32-34 degree temps makes it hard to get accumulations without heavy rates, but give us cold soil and maybe we can work with that, even if rates aren't great.

 

[CaryWx]

Ahhhh...let the warmth envelop us. Pre-emergent time around Valentines...

Pre-emergent was dropped 2 weeks ago by my yard guy. Dormantly sitting snug under a blanket of soft snow awaiting to attack that first warm attempt at weed germination

 

[superjames1992]

At this point, this threat kind of seems like a rain-to-mood flakes at the end; maybe we see a dusting / coating on elevated surfaces kind of thing. But, here's to hoping! It does seem like we may get the mid-levels to cool off enough for snow for the last tenth of an inch of liquid or so, but the BL looks like an issue and we don't have a lot of precip to waste cooling that off. Moreover, light snow at 34 degrees just isn't going to do it. But I'll be tracking it because I can't help myself. I suppose it's not implausible that this could trend to a coating - 2" kind of deal if the right pieces change places, but it's certainly not a favored solution.

 

[Stormdoc]

You guys in the western NC got a long ways to go this winter. It's been an active winter and I can't imagine it just dying today for places like western NC.

Don’t forget the coastal plain, they got another one footer left this winter too!

 

[SD]

Gfs and cmc holding moisture back on Thursday like the AI models now. Would probably be a rain to snow event for many

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

thoughts?

 

[KyloG]

How you get out of this mess before March...going to take a lot of that Charlotte/Greensboro/PGV luck...but they can do it if anyone.

Time to tune up the lawn mowers and get the fertilizer ready to go.

 

[KyloG]

But for the optimists...it's looks very active still. I remember back in 2014 I cancelled winter the first of Feb and it blew up in my face...





2014, first week

 

[WxGSO]

How you get out of this mess before March...going to take a lot of that Charlotte/Greensboro/PGV luck...but they can do it if anyone.

Time to tune up the lawn mowers and get the fertilizer ready to go.

View attachment 193260View attachment 193261

I'm still hesitant to believe this is going to materialize. It just hasn't so far this winter. There might be a thaw but pattern keeps on repeating.



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