Btownheel
Member
Man, my belly is full. You can miss me with some zr bullsh*t this week, lol.
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Pattern Fab Feb
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Man, my belly is full. You can miss me with some zr bullsh*t this week, lol.
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All in
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Good to see the 6Z GFS has our weekly weekend event for late this coming weekend.
Low of 10.7 this morning
The final 20 days of winter begin today, with snow on the ground and a temperature of 13 degrees.
If we don't score within the next 10 days, if the ensembles are believed beyond day 10, then after this weekend, if no threats are on the horizon, then we wait and see if some of us can score an early spring storm in late February or early March.
Who knows, perhaps we can get back to some of those crazy runs the GFS was dreaming up a couple of days ago.
If we don't score within the next 10 days, if the ensembles are believed beyond day 10, then after this weekend, if no threats are on the horizon, then we wait and see if some of us can score an early spring storm in late February or early March.
Who knows, perhaps we can get back to some of those crazy runs the GFS was dreaming up a couple of days ago.
I really do wonder how cold we could get tonight in CLT metro with basically 10-15” of snow blanketing the area. Skies should be clear and light winds. I have a feeling some outlying areas will make a run at 0
We laugh at the CFS but what I've heard it's ok with pattern recognition. It shows a lot of troughing out west which would support what Kylog stated above. It also shows highs moving across the north US and signs of possible CAD events. So that may be what winter storms we might be dealing with this month.
The monthly version for Feb ran yesterday was pretty eye-candy-ish. It bounces a lot...as does the long range pattern representation.
I would be surprised if there aren't some 0-5 degree temperatures in the outlying areas, which should be single digits in a lot of areas. And congratulations on a BIG SNOW.
BHS1975
Member
Oh yeah. Lock it in
Start the thread!
One thing to think about is the surface temps for this next event. They will be marginal for many areas (much different from yesterday). But the snow coverage to the north, may help make this a little more interesting. A rain turning to snow event, which normally is not as doable. So not excited about a big event, but some could see a couple of inches.
rburrel2
Member
This day 4 event looks tailor made for Raleigh. Next
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
12z GFS does show a rain to snow setup mid week, something to watch.
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NBAcentel
Member
Looks like we have a legit shot at a novelty event with a small chance at a nuisance event later this week. All depends on how much we can sharpen the trough and still leave behind the base. Looks better for Raleigh vs CLT this time, for at least something small anyways 
Edward Nygma
Member
Time for RDU to get back to winning.... the daily high temperature competition!!!
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
It doesn’t really see the heat dome well but you can kinda tell that it recognizes it somewhat and breaks it up prior to getting to the Carolina’s.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
I think another CAD ice storm is in the cards. Pattern just screams it
Interesting that both AI gfs and euro hold precip over the longer on Thursday while the ops are more progressive
NBAcentel
Member
It’s time to rage…. For a torch !! Gonna feel like summer in the 60s 
NBAcentel
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
At least soil temps will be cold, which will help provided we get some snow to actually fall. Warm soil temps + 32-34 degree temps makes it hard to get accumulations without heavy rates, but give us cold soil and maybe we can work with that, even if rates aren't great.
Pre-emergent was dropped 2 weeks ago by my yard guy. Dormantly sitting snug under a blanket of soft snow awaiting to attack that first warm attempt at weed germination
At this point, this threat kind of seems like a rain-to-mood flakes at the end; maybe we see a dusting / coating on elevated surfaces kind of thing. But, here's to hoping! It does seem like we may get the mid-levels to cool off enough for snow for the last tenth of an inch of liquid or so, but the BL looks like an issue and we don't have a lot of precip to waste cooling that off. Moreover, light snow at 34 degrees just isn't going to do it. But I'll be tracking it because I can't help myself. I suppose it's not implausible that this could trend to a coating - 2" kind of deal if the right pieces change places, but it's certainly not a favored solution.
Don’t forget the coastal plain, they got another one footer left this winter too!
Gfs and cmc holding moisture back on Thursday like the AI models now. Would probably be a rain to snow event for many
thoughts?
I'm still hesitant to believe this is going to materialize. It just hasn't so far this winter. There might be a thaw but pattern keeps on repeating.
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BHS1975
Member
Slider in the works
It's hard to say that this week's potential winter weather threat will amount to much besides some tail end of the event flakes for folks west of the mountains. Cold air chasing moisture is not a proven formula for success if you want winter weather in the Southeast.
As far as the general pattern for the rest of February, that is still up in the air. Models are hinting at a ridge developing in the Eastern part of the United States around the middle of the month and they are hard to dislodge once they set up. The models have been horrible at forecasting long range trends during this strange and abnormally cold winter so what they are telling us should not be taken as gospel.
As far as the general pattern for the rest of February, that is still up in the air. Models are hinting at a ridge developing in the Eastern part of the United States around the middle of the month and they are hard to dislodge once they set up. The models have been horrible at forecasting long range trends during this strange and abnormally cold winter so what they are telling us should not be taken as gospel.
Yall got any of them weathernext images for Thursday 
The EURO now has the low for Monroe dropping to -1. Tonight. Just curious to see the mets on here opinion of just how low it could go to over the snow pack
We got down to 7 in Matthews last night, would love to make a run at 0 with the snow cover
You need 2 inches of sleet. Cause we still got it from 8 days ago underneath all that snow. Ive never seen ice harden , and refuse to melt,let go like that stuff. Been so cold , so long , so that plays a big role. This snow will just evaporate in sun, regardless how cold it is.
I will say this, I love having a white landscape in the winter. So much more attractive than brown ground
blueheronNC
Member
I
It doesn’t depict any snow accum from this though
Yeah. We got down to 8 here just from getting about 2 hours of clear skies and the breeze was still up. A very solid snow pack with no bare ground here. If the wind stays calm, I think it could really bottom out tonight. Full moon tonight too, so I encourage anyone to go out and see just how bright it is outside tonight and here that distinct crunch of the packed powder