Long winter turns extra long. This one will probably actually give us a good March. There's no science I can roll out here, but something changed last year. It just seems like it did. Winters are coming back to the east.
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Pattern Fab Feb
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
bncho
Member
It's actually possible that the 2023-24 El Nino changed the base state of something (what that thing IS I'm not sure) that made 2024-25 and this winter so much colder than the last few winters.
We've gone through 4-7 year cycles of cold winters pretty much as long as I've been aware of winter and that's 40 years. At least here in eastern NC and SC. Can't speak for anywhere else.
A solidly -PDO since 2018 waning now perhaps?
Wasn't that a neutral Enso in 23/24? Seems the last El Nino was 19/20 or so
Edit
I stand corrected. Strong El Nino. I have a short weather memory when the winter sucked. I want to forget that winter.
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Most likely culprit is the sun imo. Not sure of the how. We just wrapped up a solar maximum. Headed toward solar minimum now. Beleive sun flips its poles every 11 years and does all kinds of crazy stuff. Im no expert, but I know it has to play a big role on not just our atmosphere, but also tectonic plates, earth magma etc.
I think we rightfully so try to annalyze sea surface stuff alot, like mjo, mountain torgue, base state, etc. But there is so much that goes on underneath the indian and pacific ocean, geo magnetic wise that probably change sea temps, which in turn drive weather patterns. Just thinking out loud here.
disassociated_vort
Member
*types in SpaceWeatherWoman on youtube*
One thing is certain. Chaos. We do our best to find patterns. And there are patterns. But literally everything you can think of has some impact. Including the very fact that you are thinking about this. Because chaos.
But leaving chaos out (pffft. But let’s try anyway). There are decadal patterns too. And even longer ones.
Prolly too small a sample size (and too soon) to jump to any conclusion that we are, somehow, returning to some glorious past with more wintry hits for the SE.
But… tossing all logic aside. Y’all ain’t alone in letting this “wishful” thinking in. I wonder and want it to be true too. Cuz I miss those amazing times too! And what if? Guess we’ll find out.
bncho
Member
Maybe... but I think we hit solar maximum in 2024, and there's usually a 1-2 year lag between the correlation of blocking and solar min, and vice versa. That means this would be the most hostile year, just based on the sun.
lexxnchloe
Member
Will never verify, but it is the image I needed to end the evening. thanks for that. Better to go to sleep in hope than in loss.
lexxnchloe
Member
If this verified, I would consider the past 7 winters forgiven
lexxnchloe
Member
snow piles in walmart till july
B2B Miller A bombs and Jimmy gonna retire from the hobby 
This might qualify for the most insane clown run I’ve ever seen, and there have already been quite a few doozies this year.
Im dead
GFS gave us 25 years worth of snowfall in 384 hours. This is my new favorite weather model screenshot of all time. Straight to the top of the list. It’s so much snow they had to make it booger green
WolfpackHomer91
Member
That would bring the Ole Climo avg back up to 6-8” for us here
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Brent
Member
Lol 
There's a legitimate chance RDU goes more than 2 weeks straight without reaching 50°F. The persistence of this cold could be historic
Until a persistent ridge steps in and takes over, there’s no reason to think we’re close to done here. You’ll know it when we are, but we ain’t there yet
Like I said last week, the pattern mandates snow
Brent
Member
Oh there's no way it's over here haha
But seriously February is a lot of years our best month tbh
It's gonna be hard to top the last 2-3 weeks though
I mean there's places in my apartment complex still covered in snow and it's been 6 days since the snow stopped
But seriously February is a lot of years our best month tbh
It's gonna be hard to top the last 2-3 weeks though
I mean there's places in my apartment complex still covered in snow and it's been 6 days since the snow stopped
dsaur
Member
Let 'em come, lol. The more chances I have to get a roaring sleet/snow shut down like folks east are getting. I love it out there when no one goes out. I may be stuck at the bottom, but I'd love another shot at the big state road hill. Takes a lot of sleet to shut down a county road. Every body has to take the four wheel down and up. The sleet fills right back in. One of the last super good ones down here was in the middle of a string.
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Frame worthy
Prestige Worldwide
Member
When you get on a Heater- enjoy the heck out of it
This map is avatar worthy. It is the ultimate clown map. We would need the moisture from a tropical system combined with cold air from the polar vortex like today to produce totals like that.
Brent
Member
Somehow it's almost even worse haha. Faster for sure
NorthGaWinter4
Member
Heavy snow and wind. This is pretty awesome. Accumulating very quickly
Great googly moogly @ the CFS.
SnowNiner
Member
Y’all reel in one for me. Punch in the stomach I left the bullseye for today. Need another one to make me feel better next weekend. 
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Look familiar?
Man gone!!!
kennedybb6
Member
Yall I just wiped out my car on ice here in union county area roads in bad shape stay home
accu35
Member
Feb 12-14 timeframe looks like big potential
We got to do better here in ATL ansd points west!