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Pattern Fab Feb

FallsLake said:
One thing to think about is the surface temps for this next event. They will be marginal for many areas (much different from yesterday). But the snow coverage to the north, may help make this a little more interesting. A rain turning to snow event, which normally is not as doable. So not excited about a big event, but some could see a couple of inches.
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At least soil temps will be cold, which will help provided we get some snow to actually fall. Warm soil temps + 32-34 degree temps makes it hard to get accumulations without heavy rates, but give us cold soil and maybe we can work with that, even if rates aren't great.
 
At this point, this threat kind of seems like a rain-to-mood flakes at the end; maybe we see a dusting / coating on elevated surfaces kind of thing. But, here's to hoping! It does seem like we may get the mid-levels to cool off enough for snow for the last tenth of an inch of liquid or so, but the BL looks like an issue and we don't have a lot of precip to waste cooling that off. Moreover, light snow at 34 degrees just isn't going to do it. But I'll be tracking it because I can't help myself. I suppose it's not implausible that this could trend to a coating - 2" kind of deal if the right pieces change places, but it's certainly not a favored solution.
 
KyloG said:
How you get out of this mess before March...going to take a lot of that Charlotte/Greensboro/PGV luck...but they can do it if anyone.

Time to tune up the lawn mowers and get the fertilizer ready to go.

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I'm still hesitant to believe this is going to materialize. It just hasn't so far this winter. There might be a thaw but pattern keeps on repeating.



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It's hard to say that this week's potential winter weather threat will amount to much besides some tail end of the event flakes for folks west of the mountains. Cold air chasing moisture is not a proven formula for success if you want winter weather in the Southeast.

As far as the general pattern for the rest of February, that is still up in the air. Models are hinting at a ridge developing in the Eastern part of the United States around the middle of the month and they are hard to dislodge once they set up. The models have been horrible at forecasting long range trends during this strange and abnormally cold winter so what they are telling us should not be taken as gospel.
 
The EURO now has the low for Monroe dropping to -1. Tonight. Just curious to see the mets on here opinion of just how low it could go to over the snow pack
 
Chazwin said:
The EURO now has the low for Monroe dropping to -1. Tonight. Just curious to see the mets on here opinion of just how low it could go to over the snow pack
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We got down to 7 in Matthews last night, would love to make a run at 0 with the snow cover
 
We had 5 inches of snow and it’s basically gone. And it’s still pretty dang cold. What does it take to get snow to stick around. A cloudy day maybe?
 
Stevo24 said:
We had 5 inches of snow and it’s basically gone. And it’s still pretty dang cold. What does it take to get snow to stick around. A cloudy day maybe?
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You need 2 inches of sleet. Cause we still got it from 8 days ago underneath all that snow. Ive never seen ice harden , and refuse to melt,let go like that stuff. Been so cold , so long , so that plays a big role. This snow will just evaporate in sun, regardless how cold it is.
I will say this, I love having a white landscape in the winter. So much more attractive than brown ground
 
DopplerWx said:
We got down to 7 in Matthews last night, would love to make a run at 0 with the snow cover
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Yeah. We got down to 8 here just from getting about 2 hours of clear skies and the breeze was still up. A very solid snow pack with no bare ground here. If the wind stays calm, I think it could really bottom out tonight. Full moon tonight too, so I encourage anyone to go out and see just how bright it is outside tonight and here that distinct crunch of the packed powder
 
KyloG said:
But for the optimists...it's looks very active still. I remember back in 2014 I cancelled winter the first of Feb and it blew up in my face...

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2014, first week

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You’ve been cancelling winter for a month and that hasn’t worked out for you. I think I read 17 posts in a day where you went back and forth cancelling winter and predicting snow storms…it’s like watching a bi-polar ex from afar and just laughing.
 
Chazwin said:
Yeah. We got down to 8 here just from getting about 2 hours of clear skies and the breeze was still up. A very solid snow pack with no bare ground here. If the wind stays calm, I think it could really bottom out tonight. Full moon tonight too, so I encourage anyone to go out and see just how bright it is outside tonight and here that distinct crunch of the packed powder
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My area always seems to really perform in cold events, this morning got down to -0.2. Probably gonna go lower tonight, western York county sc
 
Mjo possibly getting into the IO is going to at least favor periods of western trough but it doesn't favor a SER. Maybe post mid month once/if the mjo can progress forward we can get into mid of a SER pattern. Until then I wouldn't be surprised if we had at least another shot or 2 through the 15th.
 
Cosgrove is still convinced there's a legitimate wide-spread threat around Valentines Day. Many in the energy industry uses his service.

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AlabamaWxWatcher said:
This pattern has been absolutely brutal for Alabama in terms of winter weather. Central Alabama has seen some flurries and cold temps for the last 4-5 weeks. Ready for a pattern mixup.
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You guys had great winters while we watched from a far in recent winters . It’s good to take turns.
 

Winter wonderland in SW VA
 
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