• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

jackendrickwx said:
The Euro camp has to show me something tbh. It would not take much from where it is right now to give a more exciting solution, but personally, as someone who has to create a public forecast that includes the Foothills of NC tomorrow, I'm not sure it would be something I'd explicitly forecast yet. 0z euro/eps could at least make me think twice about that.

Too easy for it to vanish east at this range or end up too fast to do anything wintry over here. May end up conservative, but that's where I'm at right now
Click to expand...
Just go w ol’ faithful: broad swath of T-6”
 
wow said:
18z GFS holds. Some differences with the energy as it bottoms out and doesn't phase in as well as the 12z but at this range it's good to go.

We have the initial overrunning precip when the trough is still pos tilted, then the question is if/when does it wrap up and tilt to bomb out a coastal.. that'll determine if there will be much higher amounts on the northern end.
Click to expand...
The GFS did well with one of this past December events continuing to show snow when the other models had nothing for days. Let's hope it is on to something again.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Just go w ol’ faithful: broad swath of T-6”
Click to expand...
ha, that's a forecast practice I will never be in the business of. if i don't know with decent confidence, you aren't getting a map out of me until the bitter end. i'd rather wait till 18 hours before go time to put out one forecast than put out more than 2 maps
 
jackendrickwx said:
ha, that's a forecast practice I will never be in the business of. if i don't know with decent confidence, you aren't getting a map out of me until the bitter end. i'd rather wait till 18 hours before go time to put out one forecast than put out more than 2 maps
Click to expand...
Just find the craziest GEFS member and roll with it as a forecast
 
If we continue to do the usual NW trend as we often see w/ these overrunning style events, I'd almost rather be in MS-AL-GA than the east-central portion of the Carolinas for this one.

Aside from the stronger warm advection, poorer diurnal timing of the arctic front, and potential slowing of said boundary by the mountains in NC & SC, I really don't like the lack of a cold surface high to the north for the Carolinas. It's not the end of the world of course, but just another thing I'm not a huge fan of w/ this.

gfs_mslpaNorm_eus_15.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
If we continue to do the usual NW trend as we often see w/ these overrunning style events, I'd almost rather be in MS-AL-GA than the east-central portion of the Carolinas for this one.

Aside from the stronger warm advection, poorer diurnal timing of the arctic front, and potential slowing of said boundary by the mountains in NC & SC, I really don't like the lack of a cold surface high to the north for the Carolinas. It's not the end of the world of course, but just another thing I'm not a huge fan of w/ this.

View attachment 183468
Click to expand...
Do you think DC is in a good spot for this, or are they too far NW?
 
Webberweather53 said:
If we continue to do the usual NW trend as we often see w/ these overrunning style events, I'd almost rather be in MS-AL-GA than the east-central portion of the Carolinas for this one.

Aside from the stronger warm advection, poorer diurnal timing of the arctic front, and potential slowing of said boundary by the mountains in NC & SC, I really don't like the lack of a cold surface high to the north for the Carolinas. It's not the end of the world of course, but just another thing I'm not a huge fan of w/ this.

View attachment 183468
Click to expand...
My original ‘hope’ was that the wave running into TN Saturday would press the thermal boundary and cold air to the coast, then we’d have a bit of wave spacing before our storm wave drops into the trough. We’ve lost a bit of that initial press east on some model runs. But regardless, we still have an issue with pinning our hopes to the GFS suite. Majority of the other suites are moreso coastal scrapers (which could work out well for some)
 
griteater said:
My original ‘hope’ was that the wave running into TN Saturday would press the thermal boundary and cold air to the coast, then we’d have a bit of wave spacing before our storm wave drops into the trough. We’ve lost a bit of that initial press east on some model runs. But regardless, we still have an issue with pinning our hopes to the GFS suite. Majority of the other suites are moreso coastal scrapers (which could work out well for some)
Click to expand...

I personally don’t buy the eastern solutions
 
Webberweather53 said:
I personally don’t buy the eastern solutions
Click to expand...

Just about everything I see screams northwest trend down to the last minute.

Whether that be the forcing mechanisms for the precip (warm advection/isentropic upglide), the diurnal timing of the cold advection and the fact that most of our cold air has to come from the west over the mtns to get here in time (it usually ends up a bit slower which also forces things NW), the lack of a cold high to the north to suppress the baroclinic zone to the south, etc.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Just about everything I see screams northwest trend down to the last minute.

Whether that be the forcing mechanisms for the precip (warm advection/isentropic upglide), the diurnal timing of the cold advection and the fact that most of our cold air has to come from the west over the mtns to get here in time (it usually ends up a bit slower which also forces things NW), the lack of a cold high to the north to suppress the baroclinic zone to the south, etc.
Click to expand...

So…..you’re thinking rain for the piedmont?
 
Arcc said:
Depends on where you are. For instance the chance of its trending NW too much from say Dothan, AL to Macon,GA and northwest of there are about nill.

Good cold air feed and location will just yield more precip to cool the column if it does go crazy and amp.
Click to expand...

So you’re saying that it can still snow in those areas?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
If we continue to do the usual NW trend as we often see w/ these overrunning style events, I'd almost rather be in MS-AL-GA than the east-central portion of the Carolinas for this one.

Aside from the stronger warm advection, poorer diurnal timing of the arctic front, and potential slowing of said boundary by the mountains in NC & SC, I really don't like the lack of a cold surface high to the north for the Carolinas. It's not the end of the world of course, but just another thing I'm not a huge fan of w/ this.

View attachment 183468
Click to expand...

Wow, was not expecting that big of a NW trend…Maybe central SC out of it.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
I think the 18z ukmet was good. Check out how much less that first trough has dug down compared to 12z run.

Also… our wave is clearly further west, but also looks like it’s making more progress towards tilting compared to 12z.

Honestly, it looks like an even better version of the 00z bomb run.

Also you can clearly see the 12z run was ruined by Lower heights/first shortwave pressing down more.

IMG_0395.gif
 
KyloG said:
Maybe I should have waited 5 mins for the 18z run 🤦‍♂️

View attachment 183471
Click to expand...
Quite the nod to the GFS here with 4-6" in FL/GA verbatim. Obviously only one run, but glad to see some beefing up in general

A possible way to get around what Webb has pointed out with waiting on cold air to get over the Appalachians (which yeah, when does it ever drop as quick as modeled with fronts?) would be if you could keep slowing precip down to the point where it is Sunday evening... still not great diurnal timing.
 
Webberweather53 said:
All it would take is the precipitation being forced by warm advection & isentropic upglide aloft to end up a bit stronger than modeled and this latent heat release/-PVa aloft would feedback onto the synoptic pattern a bit and shift things NW even further from here.

View attachment 183462
Click to expand...

What does that mean for South MS/AL/GA?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top