broken025
Member
This feels pretty bullish from Brad 4-5 days out.
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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
Cold/freezing temperatures reaching the Piedmont always takes longer than even forecasted. My 3 years living in Charlotte I learned that hard lesson
Last edited:
JHS
Member
Yeah, it can be rough trying to get the cold here in time because of the mountains. We need something coming on the tail end of one of these cold air masses we keep getting. Something with a high centered over PA or NY. With my luck it would be ZR though, something we are LONG overdue for.
Hate to tell you. This is not a Northern Alabama/Southern Tennessee storm. Sorry
Wish it was but it is what it is.
Don’t give these people false hope.
- Joined
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- 101
Interesting SREF Charts for the deep south: Lake Charles, Louisiana and Birmingham, AL. Lake Charles is the one with more members showing accum. 
iGRXY
Member
NAM already looks improved thru 39
iGRXY
Member
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iGRXY
Member
Take the long range NAM’s surface with a grain of salt but this is clearly improving
wow
Member
NAM continues the west trend
Good thoughts about the storm here in the Carolinas. I am hoping some stronger dynamics may be able to overcome some of the warm air advection, especially if it pivots and turns negative as it pulls away. There should be some good confluence with the PV in SE Canada, and 850s are like going to also crash quite cold after the pivot, so hoping it will be able to keep the mid levels and surface colder as long as we get heavier precipitation. Of course, this could be my inner weenie wishcasting
NBAcentel
Member
Shortwave around MT bulging west 
rburrel2
Member
We’re headed for a more east to west oriented precip shield, imo. Blooming much further west than most models are showing.
My only pause is thats the exact opposite of what the ai models keep advertising.
My only pause is thats the exact opposite of what the ai models keep advertising.
Far more separation from the TPV in SE Canada, too. Not to mention, higher heights in the east.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Finally that stupid TPV decides to leave.. That was getting annoying looking at every model run for the system today. Love the looks for this weekends system
rburrel2
Member
Crazy…. Wonder if all the 00z runs will keep the trend going?iGRXY
Member
Higher heights should lead to more WAA and precip. Of course the NAM dries everything up like somebody’s grandma’s elbow. It’s long range dry bias is ridiculous
Better than Wisconsin.
NCSNOW
Member
Easy. We would all probably be raining without it. But i get your drift.
iGRXY
Member
If anything you should worry about amplification killing the temps and getting a cold rain vs it being cold and dry IMO
NCSNOW
Member
Other night we where just begging for it to kiss the Dakotas state line.
Flo
Member
Rather cold and dry. Cold rain is the worst especially when it’s 33.
SimeonNC
Member
Final panel of the NAM has the tinest bits of precip breaking out in NC/SC.
Bigedd09
Member
End of NAM winter precip breaking out near nc/sc border . One thing to watch is the thermals on the NAM. Normally handles warm nose well
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We can work with this. Needs a tweak or two away from positive tilt.
SnowNiner
Member
End of NAM winter precip breaking out near nc/sc border . One thing to watch is the thermals on the NAM. Normally handles warm nose well
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Looks like the Euro. Looks way too positive tilt.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah, I "think" if you extrapolated, this NAM run would've been fine because it's not dry at 700 mb on humidity. But then you're playing games with the long range NAM...
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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Shortwave in south-central Canada crashing into the longwave will not help in wanting less positive tilt
NBAcentel
Member
Regardless this nam run was about to light up, the main centric FGEN is over CAE… this was headed to a QPF bomb
SimeonNC
Member
Yeah I don't think we're getting away from the positive tilt here imo.
LongRanger
Member
It's soon gonna crush job somebody
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
End of NAM winter precip breaking out near nc/sc border . One thing to watch is the thermals on the NAM. Normally handles warm nose well
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540 freezing line cutting NC in half, not a real fan of that.
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But nobody knows that for sure. It’s unlikely as of now. But if the NW trend continues for 3 days, who knows?
Bigedd09
Member
mydoortotheworld
Member
I fear this the most. If you get this to amp up, you pump up heights out east and then you end up with temps on fire. As Webber mentioned earlier we don’t really get a high to the NE to reinforce cold air this time
NBAcentel
Member
NAM is interesting the tilt sucks but it digs and slows far west back enough for more so a purely overrunning type of setup with warm air advection aloft
ChattaVOL
Member
Especially if the NAM is right and brings a low into the gulf
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