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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

You’re getting too caught up in the tilt. If you get the 84 hr H5 NAM, we will get a QPF monster. The SER is poking big time even with the positive tilt because of how much the energy has dug to the SW. it’s just an open conveyer belt for WAA and FGEN driven precip. The bigger issue IMO is going to be temps outside of the 85 corridor. If you’re along and north of it you should be fine in this setup. If not, cold rain is a real possibility
 
ducketta27 said:
For sure, NAM definitely overdoes QPF. Thermals it does well. Truly an amped up system not good for those in central SC/NC anyway… Amp too much and this will be in the mountains before we know it


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It use to overdo qpf, hasn’t done that since its update. If anything, it runs dry, especially the 3k NAM.
 
ducketta27 said:
For sure, NAM definitely overdoes QPF. Thermals it does well. Truly an amped up system not good for those in central SC/NC anyway… Amp too much and this will be in the mountains before we know it


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Agree about NAM often overdoing qpf, sometimes double reality. But otoh, Icon may have a dry bias. In advance of 1/21-2/2025 storm, its qpf even just a few days out was driest and runs got much wetter as the event got closer.
 
iGRXY said:
You’re getting too caught up in the tilt. If you get the 84 hr H5 NAM, we will get a QPF monster. The SER is poking big time even with the positive tilt because of how much the energy has dug to the SW. it’s just an open conveyer belt for WAA and FGEN driven precip. The bigger issue IMO is going to be temps outside of the 85 corridor. If you’re along and north of it you should be fine in this setup. If not, cold rain is a real possibility
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This. December 2017 was a positive tilt WAA driven monster .
 
Baby Crazy Uncle marginally improved. Very much like the ICON. Model wars continue. Precip east, and thermals are a problem there.
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Wild Weather Monger said:
Baby Crazy Uncle marginally improved. Very much like the ICON. Model wars continue. Precip east, and thermals are a problem there.
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I’ve already largely given up on anything other than maybe a flurry or two at the very end here. You can’t fight the NW model trend. And the air is so marginal along with not a lot of qpf. A flurry would be enough to beat the majority of winters here, but even that’s doubtful as of now. CHS handled this well with downplaying. But I’m not mad. Though I always want to see it, I never get mad at this kind of thing because it’s just mother nature.
 
1768447419736.pngAnother perfect example here. Even with the +tilt trough, the S/W is dug so far SW that it’s pumping the SER. The icon had quite a bit more precip this run but even it dries up over the upstate. That’s not happening if you get this H5 look. You’re just inviting WAA. This is something where we aren’t going to know the details at a glance until late Friday or early Saturday when Hi-Res models pick up on the FGEN driven precip
 
iGRXY said:
View attachment 183532Another perfect example here. Even with the +tilt trough, the S/W is dug so far SW that it’s pumping the SER. The icon had quite a bit more precip this run but even it dries up over the upstate. That’s not happening if you get this H5 look. You’re just inviting WAA. This is something where we aren’t going to know the details at a glance until late Friday or early Saturday when Hi-Res models pick up on the FGEN driven precip
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I think ICON here isn't really handling the actual precip sheild on this run. Imo you would think there would be snow this run north of where it shows rain. But good trends at least for my area
 
GaWx said:
I’ve already largely given up on anything other than maybe a flurry or two at the very end here. You can’t fight the NW model trend. And the air is so marginal along with not a lot of qpf. A flurry would be enough to beat the majority of winters here, but even that’s doubtful as of now. CHS handled this well with downplaying. But I’m not mad. Though I always want to see it, I never get mad at this kind of thing because it’s just mother nature.
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IDK. I'd not give up on it even over your way. There was quite a bit of ensemble support in the daytime runs. The three models that have been honking are about to run. Let's see.
 
GaWx said:
I’ve already largely given up on anything other than maybe a flurry or two at the very end here. You can’t fight the NW model trend. And the air is so marginal along with not a lot of qpf. A flurry would be enough to beat the majority of winters here, but even that’s doubtful as of now. CHS handled this well with downplaying. But I’m not mad. Though I always want to see it, I never get mad at this kind of thing because it’s just mother nature.
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You actually have a bit of a different issue in south georgia. WAA, NW Tick
 
LukeBarrette said:
View attachment 183533
That’s a completely different look than we have seen so far. Long way to go on this one folks
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That is a typical winter storm ;look for North Carolina with Wake County on the rain/snow dividing line. This would indicate mixing issues due to warm air advection in this area.
 
Just my opinion, but especially for those of us east of the apps, I’m not sure how much negative tilt you want this going. If you’re getting that much SER already with it positively tilted, you really are on the a thin thin line of too much WAA and sitting at 40 degree rain. I really do think precip isn’t going to be the issue here. It’s marginal cold air that will have to fight the WAA begin driven into it.
 
iGRXY said:
Just my opinion, but especially for those of us east of the apps, I’m not sure how much negative tilt you want this going. If you’re getting that much SER already with it positively tilted, you really are on the a thin thin line of too much WAA and sitting at 40 degree rain. I really do think precip isn’t going to be the issue here. It’s marginal cold air that will have to fight the WAA begin driven into it.
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But if it goes Neg Tilt it will be colder
 
iGRXY said:
Just my opinion, but especially for those of us east of the apps, I’m not sure how much negative tilt you want this going. If you’re getting that much SER already with it positively tilted, you really are on the a thin thin line of too much WAA and sitting at 40 degree rain. I really do think precip isn’t going to be the issue here. It’s marginal cold air that will have to fight the WAA begin driven into it.
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Interesting how far we've come in less than 48hrs. Before cold was not an issue. Precip was. Now.....
 
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Snow Showing up in South AL/MS at the end of the NAM


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