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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

Webberweather53 said:
This setup looks like a significantly warmer version of Jan 2014 essentially.
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I’m with ya on an earlier post you made, if NW trend does continue then MS/AL/GA will be the sweet spot. Honestly even if we don’t NW I’m still looking good
 
Just my opinion but I think this ends up being an 85 NW snow potential here. I get nervous when there’s not a true HP locked in over the NE and you’re dealing with WAA driven precip. I think it’ll be cold enough for those with elevation along and north of 85. But that’s also dependent on your energy digging correctly and it being oriented correctly by not being too positively tilted
 
Webberweather53 said:
Just about everything I see screams northwest trend down to the last minute.

Whether that be the forcing mechanisms for the precip (warm advection/isentropic upglide), the diurnal timing of the cold advection and the fact that most of our cold air has to come from the west over the mtns to get here in time (it usually ends up a bit slower which also forces things NW), the lack of a cold high to the north to suppress the baroclinic zone to the south, etc.
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Do you think even the Triad will get warm nosed?
 
iGRXY said:
Just my opinion but I think this ends up being an 85 NW snow potential here. I get nervous when there’s not a true HP locked in over the NE and you’re dealing with WAA driven precip. I think it’ll be cold enough for those with elevation along and north of 85. But that’s also dependent on your energy digging correctly and it being oriented correctly by not being too positively tilted
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Need more neg tilt, means stronger more cold
 
jrips27 said:
Here’s the map from WxBell for the 18z Euro. Great run for trends
View attachment 183473
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Only need a 75 to 100 mile shift nw for a good event for many in north ga into the upstate...needless to say that's very doable at this time range. Indeed i dont want to be in the bullseye this far out. Seeing this from the euro is very encouraging
 
KyloG said:
Jan 2014 vs this


View attachment 183478View attachment 183479
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Yeah what really stands out difference-wise between this setup and that one is the cold high is a lot stronger and legit, while we have a surface low over the Lakes to contend with while our surface low is farther to the NW as well. Also in Jan 2014, a deeper chunk of the tropospheric polar vortex dove in.
 
mydoortotheworld said:
So 12/7/17 basically
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Was just looking at this…
ba653683edbd7f5e7693c26eac740619.jpg



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If this thing continues to NW trend, does that mean there will be more moisture? What determines how much moisture is available?
 
BKWRN29 said:
If this thing continues to NW trend, does that mean there will be more moisture? What determines how much moisture is available?
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yes there will probably be more warm air advection. some areas would rain over it.

i dont like what i see, aside from the spire, right now, for my area, that's for sure
 
Here is a GFS / Euro comparison at 4AM Sunday. Can see the more positive tilt trough with the Euro there from Louisiana to Maine. Also, the Euro is a little slower / west of the GFS at the base of the trough

Jan 14 E G Compare.gif



End result here on the precip loops for the same timeframe from 4pm Saturday to 7AM Sunday. The GFS is faster and west, with more precip. Euro is slower and east, with less precip. Cold is pressing southeast on both as the storm moves in.

Jan 14 GFS Loop.gif


Jan 14 Euro Loop.gif
 
iwantsouthernsnow123 said:
Yeah one mans trash is another mans treasure I suppose.
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I mean there’s still like 3-4 days left so anything can happen I just don’t see a back to back for areas that got it last year but hey I’ve crazier things happen before so anything is possible just don’t get your hopes up


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SegTindo said:
I mean there’s still like 3-4 days left so anything can happen I just don’t see a back to back for areas that got it last year but hey I’ve crazier things happen before so anything is possible just don’t get your hopes up


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I've been doing some analog visits using meso anylasis recaps. I've seen a lot of similarities to December 8-9th 2017. Southern Jet ripping and the 500mb is almost the exact same which came as a huge surprise when i investigated it.
 
iwantsouthernsnow123 said:
I've been doing some analog visits using meso anylasis recaps. I've seen a lot of similarities to December 8-9th 2017. Southern Jet ripping and the 500mb is almost the exact same which came as a huge surprise when i investigated it.
Click to expand...

So basically saying the southern areas aren’t getting anything?


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SegTindo said:
So basically saying the southern areas aren’t getting anything?


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Not at all what I'm saying. Wherever that southwest side is is probably going to see snow. Possibly even along the gulf coast. The #1 question is where. Mountains often slow down cold air. So it is likely to be more amped up which does leave me to believe a benji like scenerio could potentially be trying to unfold. This is on the more extreme side of things but I'd keep an eye on the trend.
 
Y’all have fun with this and hope you all can land it.

Chattanooga will be waiting for the next one.


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iwantsouthernsnow123 said:
Not at all what I'm saying. Wherever that southwest side is is probably going to see snow. Possibly even along the gulf coast. The #1 question is where. Mountains often slow down cold air. So it is likely to be more amped up which does leave me to believe a benji like scenerio could potentially be trying to unfold. This is on the more extreme side of things but I'd keep an eye on the trend.
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Keep us updated!
Also where do you get your analogs from im trying to learn me about this stuff and how it works so it would be helpful!


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