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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

Bigedd09 said:
Through 75 hours
77e067b20fda6ff96c045aef22a6b144.jpg



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Pretty classic early footprint right there. And at a classic location.
 
BKWRN29 said:
Is anyone else concerned about how much this thing is shifting NW each run? I’m getting nervous.
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Depends on where you are. For instance the chance of its trending NW too much from say Dothan, AL to Macon,GA and northwest of there are about nill.

Good cold air feed and location will just yield more precip to cool the column if it does go crazy and amp.
 
Arcc said:
Depends on where you are. For instance the chance of its trending NW too much from say Dothan, AL to Macon,GA and northwest of there are about nill.

Good cold air feed and location will just yield more precip to cool the column if it does go crazy and amp.
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I am on the northern fringe on this in central Alabama. I’m alittle north of the “sweet spot”. Been bit by this many times and it scared me being this far out from the even.
 
18z GFS holds. Some differences with the energy as it bottoms out and doesn't phase in as well as the 12z but at this range it's good to go.

We have the initial overrunning precip when the trough is still pos tilted, then the question is if/when does it wrap up and tilt to bomb out a coastal.. that'll determine if there will be much higher amounts on the northern end.
 
BKWRN29 said:
I am on the northern fringe on this in central Alabama. I’m alittle north of the “sweet spot”. Been bit by this many times and it scared me being this far out from the evAmp.
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Yeah, you want this thing to amp like the rest of us do in the west. We have a lot more margin of error as far as cold goes unlike say North Carolina. On the flip side, we have less margin of error with precip.
 
The one thing I don’t like about this system for the eastern-central portion of the Carolinas is the fact that the Arctic cold front is driving thru during the middle of the day while being slowed more by the apps. Definitely the kind of recipe that can lead to a last second NW shift in wintry precip, aside from the warm advection
 
From CHS for S SC/SE GA: downplaying it, which makes sense due to borderline temps and limited qpf:

KEY MESSAGE 3: ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVING ON SUNDAY WILL USHER BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FLURRIES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

IT'S IMPORTANT TO NOTE THE MOST RECENT
12Z GFS HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE,
AND THIS SETUP WOULD FAVOR HIGHER PRECIP. AMOUNTS. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BORDERLINE ALONG THE COASTLINE ON SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THUS IT'LL BE HARD TO SUPPORT PURE
SNOW AND IT'S MORE LIKELY A RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL APPARENT NEAR THE
COASTLINE. THE PROBABILISTIC WINTER STORM SEVERITY INDEX
(WSSI-P) CONTINUES TO SHOW A 5-10% CHANCE FOR A TRACE OF
SNOWFALL FROM THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. AGAIN, CAUTION SHOULD BE
EXERCISED HERE AS THE FORECAST CAN CHANGE, AND WILL LIKELY
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. IT'S TOO FAR OUT IN THE
FORECAST TO TALK ABOUT EXACT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ANY SMALL
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST COULD MOVE THE PRECIP. OFF THE COAST AND
KEEP THE REGION DRY.
 
The Euro camp has to show me something tbh. It would not take much from where it is right now to give a more exciting solution, but personally, as someone who has to create a public forecast that includes the Foothills of NC tomorrow, I'm not sure it would be something I'd explicitly forecast yet. 0z euro/eps could at least make me think twice about that.

Too easy for it to vanish east at this range or end up too fast to do anything wintry over here. May end up conservative, but that's where I'm at right now
 
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