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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

*Flash* said:
Especially 'met bashing' a legend like James Spann. I agree, it's poor taste. No question, some of you need to check your pride at the door.
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I give him a lot of leeway for all of the lives he has saved and I think others should as well.
 
NWS GSP Official Guidance

KEY MESSAGE 4: LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY COULD
RESULT IN MINOR TRAVEL ISSUES.

ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
AND MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A BROAD BUT DEEP MID/UPPER TROF
WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST THRU THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND. A LEADING UPPER
SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF MAY BRING SOME AMOUNT DPVA AND
MID-LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE MTNS FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, HOWEVER THE MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE TROF STILL APPEARS
MINIMAL OVERALL. LOW-LVL FLOW WILL REMAIN W TO WSW DUE TO THE ORIENTA-
TION OF THE TROF AXIS. SOME AMOUNT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM HIGHER-
BASED CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY MATERIALIZE, BUT MUCH OF IT COULD EVA-
PORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. SOME OF THE MODEL PROFILES SUGGEST
A WEAK, LOW-LVL WARM NOSE COULD BE IN PLACE DURING THE ONSET OF PRECIP.
HOWEVER, WITH RELATIVELY DRY LOW-LVL AIR IN PLACE, IT'S LIKELY THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL WET-BULB DOWN TO BELOW FREEZING AND ERODE ANY WARM
NOSE FAIRLY QUICKLY. TOTAL QPF IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE NO MORE THAN
0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES OF LIQUID. THIS TRANSLATES TO ROUGHLY AN INCH OF
SNOW OVER THE TN BORDER ZONES AND SOUTHWEST NC MTNS BY DAYBREAK SAT.
SOME OF THE MORE FAVORED AREAS COULD SEE CLOSER TO 2 INCHES, BUT THOSE
AREAS WILL LIKELY BE ISOLATED. A LIGHT DUSTING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
MTNS OF NORTHEAST GA AND THE FAR NORTHWESTERN UPSTATE, BUT ANY ACCUMS
SHOULD REMAIN UNDER AN INCH.

OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR-NORMAL ON SAT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE GETS PUSHED OFFSHORE AND THE STRENGTHENING W/SW FLOW PROVIDES
SOME AMOUNT OF DOWNSLOPE WARMING EAST OF THE MTNS.

KEY MESSAGE 5: WINTER PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
EARLY SUNDAY, HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO TIMING AND AMOUNTS
REMAINS RELATIVELY LOW.

THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE THRU THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DEEPENING UPPER TROF WILL
PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU THE REGION LATE SAT WITH COLDER AIR RETURNING
SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. THE ASSOCIATED DIGGING UPPER SHORTWAVE COULD
INDUCE SOME ROBUST FRONTOGENESIS AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BACK OVER THE
COLD AIR EAST OF THE MTNS SUNDAY MORNING. AS SUCH, IF PRECIP DOES DEVE-
LOP OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES ON SUNDAY IT WOULD LIKELY BE MOSTLY SNOW.
THE CURRENT FCST STILL ONLY HAS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND ONLY A
FEW HUNDRETHS OF AN INCH OF QPF DURING THIS TIME FRAME. IF PRECIP
CHANCES AND/OR AMOUNTS TREND HIGHER GOING FORWARD, IT'S MORE LIKELY
THAT THESE AREAS COULD GET SOME AMOUNT OF SNOW. OTHERWISE, TEMPERA-
TURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL WELL-BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
 
It might snow in Oconee/Pickens/Greenville counties in SC early Saturday morning and here's why.... Even with the southerly surface winds... the models have a pocket of calm air as those winds approach the mountain slopes, and all the hi'res models have that pocket staying much colder as a result... low to mid 30's instead of 38-42 at the surface. Probably doesn't hurt that there's some adiabatic cooling too i'd imagine just off the surface.

long story short... there is a brief window for moderate snow in this small area(and in to far north Georgia, for early Saturday morning.

This is all assuming there is that band of precip from the tiny lead shortwave.

Potential fail point is we are really close to freezing at around 850mb Saturday morning. Could get warm-nosed.

Screen Shot 2026-01-14 at 4.19.44 PM.pngScreen Shot 2026-01-14 at 4.19.53 PM.pngScreen Shot 2026-01-14 at 4.23.07 PM.png
 
SnowmasterATL said:
its's still east. I will take ICON with a gain and salt at this point!
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Everybody always says this and it usually ends up with the GFS folding to the models that show the least impactful outcome. If the ICON was alone, I'd agree, but most of the guidance is still pretty far east for a widespread snow event.

A trough with a tilt from Los Angeles to Charleston is not going to get the job done any more than a big bowl trough dropping down from Lake Erie will. This situation really does have to evolve perfectly to get more than a flake floating through the air. The GFS (and previously the UK) are the only deterministic models showing that. That's not the best island to live on, IMO.
 
rburrel2 said:
It might snow in Oconee/Pickens/Greenville counties in SC early Saturday morning and here's why.... Even with the southerly surface winds... the models have a pocket of calm air as those winds approach the mountain slopes, and all the hi'res models have that pocket staying much colder as a result... low to mid 30's instead of 38-42 at the surface. Probably doesn't hurt that there's some adiabatic cooling too i'd imagine just off the surface.

long story short... there is a brief window for moderate snow in this small area(and in to far north Georgia, for early Saturday morning.

This is all assuming there is that band of precip from the tiny lead shortwave.

Potential fail point is we are really close to freezing at around 850mb Saturday morning. Could get warm-nosed.

View attachment 183428View attachment 183430View attachment 183431
Click to expand...
The 18Z icon run just showed this same band FWIW
 
What's going to help this vort get stronger and tilt sooner? Separation? Stronger west atlantic ridge? Need something to root for now that we've already got the western dig. Need to finalize that last step.
 
Through 75 hours
77e067b20fda6ff96c045aef22a6b144.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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