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Pattern January Joke

Ross said:
yeah. solid run though. i don't think the gfs or any global is going to nail cyclogenesis with this. canadian also looking like a wholesale shift west with our trough
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Although this setup is extremely unlikely to succeed for the southeast. If you get GFS but just slightly deeper you would maybe be talking potential blizzard conditions. Obviously this would take an extremely extremely unlikely scenario. But it's one to watch nonetheless even if it's a minor event.
 
iwantsouthernsnow123 said:
Although this setup is extremely unlikely to succeed for the southeast. If you get GFS but just slightly deeper you would maybe be talking potential blizzard conditions. Obviously this would take an extremely extremely unlikely scenario. But it's one to watch nonetheless even if it's a minor event.
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there's a lot of potential here. it reminds me a lot of the jan 4 2018 storm which had a lot of trepidation over digging, storm strength etc in the medium range before coming into form in the last 72 hours
 
Ross said:
2nd storm is still an unknown entity to me. i still think it's an uncommon method for us to score (glorified frontal passage) but i think there's more moving parts to sort out. also think incumbent environment it's coming into is cold and favorable. lots still on the table with that.
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Last time I can think of an overrunner succeding was 8 years ago in 12/8/17
 
Ross said:
there's a lot of potential here. it reminds me a lot of the jan 4 2018 storm which had a lot of trepidation over digging, storm strength etc in the medium range before coming into form in the last 72 hours
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Yeah when I seen GEFS 18z after this storm system today has passed through. Couldn't figure out if GEFS 18z was onto something or just being GFS 18z. But honestly, so far 0z runs have been interesting given they typical are the buzzkill runs.
 
accu35 said:
View attachment 182338
Even I’m getting little excited here
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Don't mean to be the buzzkill here. But if euro doesn't end up at least trying to do this. Take GEFS with a huge grain of salt. I have seen countless times where GEFS shows something big then folds shortly after. IF EPS hops on the trend, specially watch 500mb vort trends, then yes I would absolutely keep an eye on this.
 
iwantsouthernsnow123 said:
Don't mean to be the buzzkill here. But if euro doesn't end up at least trying to do this. Take GEFS with a huge grain of salt. I have seen countless times where GEFS shows something big then folds shortly after. IF EPS hops on the trend, specially watch 500mb vort trends, then yes I would absolutely keep an eye on this.
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IMG_5780.pngIMG_5791.png
12z eps actually did have some members for both Huntsville and Birmingham that sniffed out some light snowfall like the 00z gefs/gfs just spit out. It’s obviously not much at all but it was a bit of a surprise. We can hope the 10-20% of those members double at 00z tonight, just saying.
 
NBAcentel said:
Seems like the threat for a novelty-minor event is going up here… if you keep slowing down and deepening, precipitation associated with the vort is more easily generated View attachment 182331View attachment 182332
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Novelty sure, but I’m still intrigued by the potential. These negative tilted sharp troughs need just small adjustments for huge changes at the surface. Models also do a bad job of placing surface features for these storms in my opinion, and at the least, I am expecting a heavy mountain snow and nor’easter up the coast, but with an outside the mountains powerful deformation band potential if it digs a smidge more SW. I would feel more confident, obviously, if the Euro suite moved in a better direction soon.
 
Parker said:
View attachment 182341View attachment 182342
12z eps actually did have some members for both Huntsville and Birmingham that sniffed out some light snowfall like the 00z gefs/gfs just spit out. It’s obviously not much at all but it was a bit of a surprise. We can hope the 10-20% of those members double at 00z tonight, just saying.
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One thing about this is it's all about that vort. If it doesn't dig enough either you get an apps crusher (GFS) or Nothing at all (CMC). Euro has kinda laid inbetween it which isn't great either. We'll see what happens with 0z Euro in the coming minutes. Personally thinking it'll be a buzzkill but we'll see.
 
accu35 said:
Storm 2 still showing on the 0z gfs ENS tonight. Some are hits and some are surpress south. I’m not worried at this point.
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Out of all the members there, the minority are the ones with rain over the southeast, most are cold and mostly dry or have a snow event. That would suggest warm air issued are not a problem for most, the bigger story will be moisture and how much of it, although I want to see more consistency on the ops as it still could be more of a mid south hit in the worst case for how north the rain/snow line could end up.
 
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