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Pattern January Joke

rburrel2 said:
I know people are worried about boundary layer issues with both systems, and rightfully so, but for the 2nd system… we will actually have an extremely cold and dry airmass in place out ahead of it. That leaves a lot of room for things to trend colder at the surface.

For example: the gfs has GSP at 28/1 Saturday morning. Won’t shock my if the boundary isn’t that big of a problem with the 2nd storm.
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I know there is a lot of talk about multiple potential systems here. I have learned in the past, however, that it is important to remember how much the first system impacts system #2 down the road. It is almost fruitless to even guess what will happen when models aren’t even close to resolving the first one, which would have enormous implications for the next down the road. If we get a bombing storm or just a frontal passage for storm #1, then storm #2 will be much different.
 
Very low
Stormdoc said:
I know there is a lot of talk about multiple potential systems here. I have learned in the past, however, that it is important to remember how much the first system impacts system #2 down the road. It is almost fruitless to even guess what will happen when models aren’t even close to resolving the first one, which would have enormous implications for the next down the road. If we get a bombing storm or just a frontal passage for storm #1, then storm #2 will be much different.
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The 2nd one is most likely to go away in about 2 runs.
 
Ross said:
i get it's nice to have things to track and see pretty colors on a map but going through the thread pages i slept through frankly i saw way more hand wringing than i expected for a storm 11 days out on the gfs
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Seriously and just to add the same GFS that totally failed with the strongest Atlantic hurricane landfall in 90 years just 2 and a half months ago haha
 
Ross said:
i get it's nice to have things to track and see pretty colors on a map but going through the thread pages i slept through frankly i saw way more hand wringing than i expected for a storm 11 days out on the gfs
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True, but do you not see any potential for this first storm, especially in Richmond? These type of bombing Miller As never show up at the surface initially, which is why I am more intrigued than if the models were showing a foot of snow.
 
NCWeatherNow said:
Remember that with warm ground temps, 50% of that is melting on contact if it falls.
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Let me tell you of a miraculous day in the grand year of 2017 where snow was predicted to fall, a slushy, melting inch or two because of warm ground and marginal Temps. Instead weather laughed at forecasts and 9-15" crushed trees, power lines and blacksmith shops across the glorious land of dixie.
 
ICON, the first model to pick up on the threat and lose it at 00z, appears to be back on track at 6z. I'll add, it's nice to be tracking 500Mb vorticity inside of a week rather than looking for a pattern change weeks away as has been the mode since before Christmas, lol.
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Stormdoc said:
True, but do you not see any potential for this first storm, especially in Richmond? These type of bombing Miller As never show up at the surface initially, which is why I am more intrigued than if the models were showing a foot of snow.
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it's interesting and it's close. haven't seen a storm whose parent shortwave digs north to south like this while. amplified flow and by virtue of having a longer wavelength there's more potential here. however, our boogeyman last couple of winters is shortwaves losing their oomph, getting more sheared, losing negative tilt this range. wonder if that holds. obviously a few adjustments west to the entire wave train would be helpful here

edit- also moisture is limited. the deal you take with the shortwave coming in from the dakotas. if the 12z suite keeps the general thought/structure and marginally improves, you may see robust surface low pressures off the coast. you may think, that's wrong. there should be more qpf there. but until we get more warm air advection involved as a forcing mechanism and better moisture sourcing, the drier than you think storm is a feature not a bug
 
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LukeBarrette said:
Its scooping up the southern energy again. Look out here!
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Looks really good here will see what it puts out


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
LukeBarrette said:
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Just too late to happen. If we did not have a crashing shortwave in the West it would have time to amplify and then tilt itself for coastal folks.
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Seems a little east coming into the conus too, very positive tilt at the Mississippi. Needs to back up for the first one overall imo.
 
Im excited to see the ensemble means.... im more interested to see them start increasing than decreasing in that 5-7 day range. If those continue to increase I think were really honing in on something instead of just having fun but not seriously tracking. Although I do think if this is still here tomm eve the "Nothing" will begin to leave the table
 
If the energy doesn't merge until it reaches the Apps, then it's too far east. Need to shift the LW axis left OR delete the kicker OR edit the height field and paint in some blocking. Take whichever option you want and fix it, and you'll have a storm. Plenty of time to trend either way.
 
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