• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January Joke

Disco_Lemonade said:
That’s about a chefs kiss 5H vorticity, very Jan 2000
Click to expand...
Yeah, I thought about this yesterday. Did not want to jinx it, though. I was trying to find 500 mb maps of January 2000 but could not find any. I believe there are definitely similarities, anyone know where these maps can be found?
 
gonna play wet blanket quickly, and listen, i don't relish this position. but i've seen plenty of wound-up bombs with shortwave signatures that look like tear drops and ludicrous sting jets and they *never* verify. if they did we'd use them as analogs. i can't emphasize how unsustainable that look is. ensembles may tick up but i can almost guarantee it won't replicate *that*. occasionally the op will spit out the crazy ensemble member we like to hem and haw at. chuckle and discard it. it can't be your baseline expectation. take the W and see what the ensembles have to say.

not trying to scold i'm just trying to emotionally regulate people when this look doesn't come in the 18z
 
Ross said:
gonna play wet blanket quickly, and listen, i don't relish this position. but i've seen plenty of wound-up bombs with shortwave signatures that look like tear drops and ludicrous sting jets and they *never* verify. if they did we'd use them as analogs. i can't emphasize how unsustainable that look is. ensembles may tick up but i can almost guarantee it won't replicate *that*. occasionally the op will spit out the crazy ensemble member we like to hem and haw at. chuckle and discard it. it can't be your baseline expectation. take the W and see what the ensembles have to say.

not trying to scold i'm just trying to emotionally regulate people when this look doesn't come in the 18z
Click to expand...
I agree on threat one. Threat two has legs though.

Actually, agreement on threat two is very good across the modeling. Biggest differences are in the thermal profiles.
 
Ross said:
gonna play wet blanket quickly, and listen, i don't relish this position. but i've seen plenty of wound-up bombs with shortwave signatures that look like tear drops and ludicrous sting jets and they *never* verify. if they did we'd use them as analogs. i can't emphasize how unsustainable that look is. ensembles may tick up but i can almost guarantee it won't replicate *that*. occasionally the op will spit out the crazy ensemble member we like to hem and haw at. chuckle and discard it. it can't be your baseline expectation. take the W and see what the ensembles have to say.

not trying to scold i'm just trying to emotionally regulate people when this look doesn't come in the 18z
Click to expand...
I think we all know it isn’t gospel but we haven’t had a fantasy run inside 200hrs much less 144 all winter. We will enjoy this one and move on to Dr No in an hour.
 
1767976670593.png
Canadian was cold and dry for first threat and has different timing completely on second threat. Lets see how this evolves
 
Webberweather53 said:
Those are some real risky setups on the GFS. One thing is in the wrong spot and it completely wrecks your entire storm
Click to expand...
I agree, and everyone needs to know this is a pattern that is very boom or bust. Anomalous changes in the overall pattern and anomalous deep troughs can give either a nice cold front or great winter storms. Details will matter a lot more than even typical.
 
Waiting patiently to see where this goes. A great look been waiting for our turn for this kind of setup for years! But as you all know. Till the next model run!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top