Pattern January Joke

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Dang those are some deep 850’s

 

[jetstream30]

Are all three major models now showing some version of a storm with the second wave?

 

[packfan98]

Round 2 going to be big...

 

[wow]

The precip should explode there with that upper level output

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

So we have AI vs non-AI

I already hate AI because the vort maps lack depth. They look like water color paintings

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Looks like Ga. snow comes with the cold core ULL. Big winners and losers with those that wouldn't be determined until go-time.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Rate will overcome

 

[packfan98]

boundary layer issues for round 1

 

[LukeBarrette]

Only two frames we have for now

 

[packfan98]

...and it's rain

 

[LukeBarrette]

This would certainly piss off the entire East Coast LMAO

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Feel it in my bones. Round 2 gonna be a big mountain snow. Gonna be real hard for them to miss here

 

[accu35]

Feel it in my bones. Round 2 gonna be a big mountain snow. Gonna be real hard for them to miss here

West of the apps could get onset ice La/MS/AL

 

[accu35]

We all know models are gonna shuffle around. New look in a few hours. I’m excited we actually have two shots coming at us in one week. It’s gonna feel like winter know matter the outcome.

 

[Philstorm91]

Might see a little mixed precip here in Southern Louisiana with the second system, per the Euro. It's going to be tricky though! Getting frozen precip in the middle of the day down here usually requires things to line up almost perfectly.

 

[CaryWx]

euro not with us

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

I’d feel pretty good in the following areas:

Storm 1 - Far E/NE NC
Storm 2 - Climo areas. The usual 40 and 85 caveats apply.

 

[malak05]

Well at least we got 3 main models at this range all signaling similar signs over the Thursday to Sunday afternoon window

 

[Makeitsnow]

Dr. No's cousin is a dud for all outside of the mountain upslope folks out to ten days.
View attachment 182018

Out of curiosity does anyone have any idea how well the ai models handle evaporational and dynamical cooling?

 

[Showmeyourtds]

Out of curiosity does anyone have any idea how well the ai models handle evaporational and dynamical cooling?

It would be nice if we had an idea. I would think you would still get a better idea from the SR Mesoscale models closer to a potential event.

 

[SNOWMANN]

Baby steps plenty of time. Main thing is the ingredients are there. Round #2 could be a monster for someone. Fun times ahead! At least we have something to track.

 

[NBAcentel]

 

[Mitch West]

 

[NCWeatherNow]

Im liking these trends so far today

View attachment 182035View attachment 182040

 

[iGRXY]

I like alot

 

[NBAcentel]

this is exactly what you want to see at this juncture

 

[packfan98]

Might as well share these...

 

[BullCityWx]

40 kinda reminds me of that control run last night

 

[LukeBarrette]

Looking through the panels the EURO is honking the horn a lot more on storm threat 2. Barely any hits for storm 1

 

[xshare]

40 kinda reminds me of that control run last night

Might as well share these...

3, 9, 40 really throwing off that mean there lol

 

[Mitch West]

Wow there is a very similar "crusher" path in some of those members..

 

[NCWeatherNow]

Wow there is a very similar "crusher" path in some of those members..

What's a crusher

 

[tractor girl]

What's a crusher

Paste job

 

[WeatherNC]

It’s a lot easier to pull lows closer to the coast inside day 5, much more difficult to push them to the coast or offshore once inland tracks are shown. Day 7 is a solid look for central and eastern NC.

 

[BullCityWx]

yall gotta stop worrying about clown maps and qpf charts when something like this shows up:

 

[Rain Cold]

Might as well share these...

I try and stay out of the fray when the model runs are coming in and let the PBP guys do work. I'm happy that we are seeing proof of life with the pattern over the next 10 days. As @Ross said, it's a sticky wicket. It can work, but it might be hard. The best thing (and this IS a good thing) is that we are solidly in the game, and there are paths to victory. The ONLY thing we can do is wait. But at least it is finally good to have something to track besides a D10+ day pattern. The time for sleep is over.

 

[mrdaddyman]

It’s a lot easier to pull lows closer to the coast inside day 5, much more difficult to push them to the coast or offshore once inland tracks are shown. Day 7 is a solid look for central and eastern NC.

I really hope you are right. 99% of the time, us Central and Eastern NC folks are sweating the warm nose from an amped up Miller A.

 

[Chazwin]

yall gotta stop worrying about clown maps and qpf charts when something like this shows up:

View attachment 182045

I agree. That EURO run for storm 1 also had dewpoints in the single digits with temps near freezing as it arrives. That should have been showing snow on the surface charts

 

[FallsLake]

With it still ~7 days out, this is about as good as it gets from RAH:

..........Forecast confidence decreases mid to late week as model guidance
diverges regarding the development and evolution of a coastal low
Wednesday into Thursday, along with an approaching frontal system.
Cluster analysis suggests less than half of ensemble members produce
precipitation locally, with the surface low remaining farther
offshore and limiting available moisture. However, if sufficient
moisture accompanies the frontal boundary, isolated showers could
affect the region Thursday into Friday, ending early Friday. A brief
wintry mix or changeover to light snow may be possible early Friday
morning before precipitation exits.

 

[Tsappfrog20]

DT is honking the horn!!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk