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Pattern January Joke

I'm just glad to be going from Beach Mountain this week to Beech Mountain next week. Y'all come on up here and let's have a model run watch party while enjoying some snow. You know you want to lol
 
Is that particular progression sort of like how the Jan 2000 storm performed? Unexpected blow up just off shore. Only this one is a bit more north into Va.
 
packfan98 said:
Last minute save!
View attachment 182079
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Not for us in the Upstate and Central Midlands of SC. But again, model run changes will occurs. It's close enough for a short road trip. Signal is strong! That's the positive take away for my area. Looks like NC is solid with this threat.
 
LukeBarrette said:
Without the first wave going bonkers its going to be harder to lock in cold for wave 2. That is just how it goes, need first wave to do crazy things!
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I don’t know how many times over the last few winters we lost #2 because #1 was a flop. For instance, you get a system cut too much to the north and you miss out and because it cut your second system goes too far to the south. Or just whatever. It’s infuriating.

That being said this is just one run of the GFS so of course I don’t plan on reading into it too much.
 
18z euro probably isn’t gonna cut it. We need that embedded piece of northern stream to dig further southwest and try to drop it more towards the base of the H5 trof. As long as that feature stays north, it’s a cold frontal passage with a bloomer off the coast. If that digs more, it generates precipitation while cold air advection is occuring through upper level processes, and it would be a colder setup VS just relying on the digging pacific oriented energy. Dream scenario here is digging it further southwest and cutting it off, similar to the 12z GFS. IMG_2106.jpeg
 
NBAcentel said:
18z euro probably isn’t gonna cut it. We need that embedded piece of northern stream to dig further southwest and try to drop it more towards the base of the H5 trof. As long as that feature stays north, it’s a cold frontal passage with a bloomer off the coast. If that digs more, it generates precipitation while cold air advection is occuring through upper level processes, and it would be a colder setup VS just relying on the digging pacific oriented energy. Dream scenario here is digging it further southwest and cutting it off, similar to the 12z GFS. View attachment 182080
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Imagine if the base of the H5 trof was in pensacola-Tallahassee area, instead of Yazoo City Mississippi in this frame. Wed get NE GOA bomb set off with a pivot off GA coast.
How the crusher did. old artic boundary,base trof sitting over Gulf stalled and ns vort come out of nowhere and cascaded right down into the base. Its an awesome gif to go back an look at.
 
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