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Pattern January Joke

NBAcentel said:
18z euro probably isn’t gonna cut it. We need that embedded piece of northern stream to dig further southwest and try to drop it more towards the base of the H5 trof. As long as that feature stays north, it’s a cold frontal passage with a bloomer off the coast. If that digs more, it generates precipitation while cold air advection is occuring through upper level processes, and it would be a colder setup VS just relying on the digging pacific oriented energy. Dream scenario here is digging it further southwest and cutting it off, similar to the 12z GFS. View attachment 182080
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Unfortunately, one of those features that are difficult for models to figure out, but a little detail that will make all the difference here. This may be one of those storms where we are down to 24 hours and will have no idea what will happen, LOL
 
LukeBarrette said:
View attachment 182063View attachment 182062
Definitely seems like we will have some sort of warm up after the two threats. However I wonder if the mean trough trends itself more to the east as we get closer in time. That has been the trend this winter so far. Would love your thoughts @Webberweather53 or @griteater for the 25th of Jan thru the 5th of Feb.
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Hey man - yeah EPS & Eur Wk look pretty poor after next week. GFS & CMC Suites not as bad with some cold to our north. MJO / Trop forcing look good, not a red flag. Biggest concern I see is what looks to be a decent -EAMT event in about a week which would want to retract the jet in the following week, and a lot of times the models don’t catch on with that until we get closer in…but that would lower our chances at seeing the western ridging we need for cold. Ever evolving, we’ll see how it goes
 
JHS said:
It's going to take something truly special to get upstate SC into a major snowstorm. I see Atlanta, Columbia, and even Charleston getting hit big before we do.
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I mean this has already happened. You can include Tallahassee Florida in that as well.
 
Stormdoc said:
Unfortunately, one of those features that are difficult for models to figure out, but a little detail that will make all the difference here. This may be one of those storms where we are down to 24 hours and will have no idea what will happen, LOL
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Bingo. The thing that caused our November flizzard was a small piece of northern stream vorticity, that thing was not resolved on modeling more clearly until 48-60 hours out. Gonna be lots of bouncing around with that peice of energy, for the better and for the worse
 
LukeBarrette said:
View attachment 182063View attachment 182062
Definitely seems like we will have some sort of warm up after the two threats. However I wonder if the mean trough trends itself more to the east as we get closer in time. That has been the trend this winter so far. Would love your thoughts @Webberweather53 or @griteater for the 25th of Jan thru the 5th of Feb.
Click to expand...

Things seem to be generally going along as I thought they would the last week or so.

Get a big cold push with some winter storm threats around MLK Day, then we back off at the end of Jan into the beginning of Feb with the SE ridge flexing. I suspect we may try to go back our current pattern by mid February ish, tho the mean wavelengths will be getting shorter, which might be a concern for SE ridging

Webberweather53 said:
We will probably see us get a good cold push initially as this EPO block sets up, then the SE ridge flexes late month as everything retrogrades.

My hunch is we will load up yet again early to mid February as the MJO orbits into the Western Hemisphere and is convectively coupled to the developing El Niño event in the Pacific.
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Webberweather53 said:
If you want snow in the south, you need to strike around MLK Day or so before the pattern retrogrades to a point where the SE ridge flexes.
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00z definitely is bringing a bit more moisture down with this initial wave than 18z
 

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