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Pattern January Joke

packfan98 said:
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Looks like Ga. snow comes with the cold core ULL. Big winners and losers with those that wouldn't be determined until go-time.
 
It’s a lot easier to pull lows closer to the coast inside day 5, much more difficult to push them to the coast or offshore once inland tracks are shown. Day 7 is a solid look for central and eastern NC.
 
packfan98 said:
Might as well share these...
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I try and stay out of the fray when the model runs are coming in and let the PBP guys do work. I'm happy that we are seeing proof of life with the pattern over the next 10 days. As @Ross said, it's a sticky wicket. It can work, but it might be hard. The best thing (and this IS a good thing) is that we are solidly in the game, and there are paths to victory. The ONLY thing we can do is wait. But at least it is finally good to have something to track besides a D10+ day pattern. The time for sleep is over.
 
WeatherNC said:
It’s a lot easier to pull lows closer to the coast inside day 5, much more difficult to push them to the coast or offshore once inland tracks are shown. Day 7 is a solid look for central and eastern NC.
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I really hope you are right. 99% of the time, us Central and Eastern NC folks are sweating the warm nose from an amped up Miller A.
 
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BullCityWx said:
yall gotta stop worrying about clown maps and qpf charts when something like this shows up:

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I agree. That EURO run for storm 1 also had dewpoints in the single digits with temps near freezing as it arrives. That should have been showing snow on the surface charts
 
With it still ~7 days out, this is about as good as it gets from RAH:

..........Forecast confidence decreases mid to late week as model guidance
diverges regarding the development and evolution of a coastal low
Wednesday into Thursday, along with an approaching frontal system.
Cluster analysis suggests less than half of ensemble members produce
precipitation locally, with the surface low remaining farther
offshore and limiting available moisture. However, if sufficient
moisture accompanies the frontal boundary, isolated showers could
affect the region Thursday into Friday, ending early Friday. A brief
wintry mix or changeover to light snow may be possible early Friday
morning before precipitation exits.
 
Rain Cold said:
I try and stay out of the fray when the model runs are coming in and let the PBP guys do work. I'm happy that we are seeing proof of life with the pattern over the next 10 days. As @Ross said, it's a sticky wicket. It can work, but it might be hard. The best thing (and this IS a good thing) is that we are solidly in the game, and there are paths to victory. The ONLY thing we can do is wait. But at least it is finally good to have something to track besides a D10+ day pattern. The time for sleep is over.
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In all honesty, Historical footprint would say 2,5 are most realistic should a big dog play out jmo
 
I haven't had much time to keep up with things today but looking at the latest posts, I like where we are at for January 15-16 and a potential MLK day storm. We have the moisture feed we need to fuel wintry precipitation in play and maybe, just maybe, enough cold air in place to produce some winter precipitation fun and games for many of us. I know there is going to be a lot of excitement and some sleepless nights during the next few days provided we don't get the rug pulled from under us. The signals are there according to the models and with a tweak here and there, we might be in business. Let's drop that 540 line further south and increase the QPF for all of us.
 
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