Pattern January Joke

[Ksnow33]

Cold rain for Carolinas

 

[accu35]

this has a overrunning look to it?

 

[Ksnow33]

Leaves energy behind that is ejecting out. Race to see if the cold can beat down the SE ridge

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Might be setting up for round 2. Let's see if we can get a CAD to build in ahead.

 

[iGRXY]

Regardless of what the surface shows, this to me would be very close to big ice in the CAD areas. Your HP is working in tandem and that’s still very cold air all concentrated in eastern Canada and along the Great Lakes. Definitely not a snow look by any means because the S/W dug too far west pumping the heights out ahead. But it’s still a look I think could produce

 

[accu35]

Left overs

 

[Ksnow33]

Virginia gets a decent storm so it's probably right

 

[trackersacker]

@LukeBarrette count your days

 

[Ksnow33]

CAD kicking in with wave 2

 

[iGRXY]

Eventually gets there but this is one of the worst models there is handling CAD and low level cold air. You have a mid to upper 1030’s HO working in tandem with solid HP out ahead like the above image and it’s sitting on the coldest air on this side of the planet and I’ll take my chances

 

[griteater]

Goes CAD wintry late in N and NW areas, but a wacky evolution there

 

[trackersacker]

Ok not bad not bad

 

[iGRXY]

We actually get what I would’ve expected even with the initial wave

 

[TheBatman]

View attachment 181887Left overs

Another run/another outcome. Going to have to get this weekend storm out to see how the table is set then.

 

[Ksnow33]

A lot hinges on how far SW that energy digs. Too far and we pump heights ahead of it

 

[accu35]

much colder run for that system. So close to a board wide winter storm.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

That energy coming down the stovepipe just needs to move along with the flow of the pattern and interact with the southern stream wave. The ridge up in western Canada just sort of rolls over on it at the last second causing it to hang back then gets cranking flooding us with that warm air out of the SW that we love so much.

But it’s better than a few days ago when it was completely cutting it off and retrograding it back into Cabo. So maybe we’re getting somewhere

 

[Ksnow33]

Ends up being a major winter storm for CAD regions. Cant remember a rain storm followed by a sleet and ice storm a day later

 

[LukeBarrette]

Look familiar…


Throw your tomatoes

 

[trackersacker]

I personally don’t even buy the GFS solution of digging the shortwave way out into the southwest like that.

 

[trackersacker]

View attachment 181894
Look familiar…


Throw your tomatoes

I traded my tomatoes for rocks

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Mercy…actually gets Morganton down to 20 degrees. 2.1 inches of snow, 1.3 inches of sleet and 0.20 of freezing rain. Skating rink.

 

[Tsappfrog20]

Not a horrible run by the gfs all right time for bed and I will see what the euro does in the morning night y’all


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Ksnow33]

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Much better than looking at some of the awful long-range runs we've had for weeks. A lot can and will change. At least we have 2-3 chances over the next 10 days or so. We're nowhere close to a solution yet.

 

[LukeBarrette]

I personally don’t even buy the GFS solution of digging the shortwave way out into the southwest like that.

Not to be that guy but when a ridge that steep happens the steering flow for the shortwave is straight south or east but very weak. Gotta have steering to move it east or you need to make sure the shortwave doesn’t get too far underneath the ridge.

 

[Ollie Williams]

View attachment 181892We actually get what I would’ve expected even with the initial wave

They put us in the winter battle zone for a reason

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It honestly looked really good up until this point. Had that saggy cold zonal overrunning look.

 

[griteater]

CMC tried hard with wave 2, but it has the opposite problem of digging the wave too far east. So take a blend there and not bad

 

[griteater]

It honestly looked really good up until this point. Had that saggy cold zonal overrunning look. View attachment 181897

The overrunning setup is the one I’m most interested in, but all setups are hard to hit on

 

[trackersacker]

Not to be that guy but when a ridge that steep happens the steering flow for the shortwave is straight south or east but very weak. Gotta have steering to move it east or you need to make sure the shortwave doesn’t get too far underneath the ridge.

No you’re right

 

[TheBatman]

Going to probably have some good hitting GEFS members in a few. Let’s see what happens.

 

[LukeBarrette]

Real talk! The first threat has my eyes wide open for someone along the coast knowing how NW trends tend to work with coastal storms…
I would keep your eyes peeled if you live on or just inside the coast!

 

[TheBatman]

If we could keep that low 100 miles south in the Gulf that would have made a lot of people on the board happy. (Board Wide Hit) On this setup I believe the WAA is gonna hurt a lot of people when it comes to temps.

 

[trackersacker]

While not a perfect match, 2005-2006 analog was in my package for this winter as I know I’ve already stated and while there are certainly large differences with this year from that year I have picked up on some similarities. One is, that one of the quickest ends to the La Niña during the winter season comparable to this upcoming one was in 05-06. Notice how we went into phase 8 in February. Then out of that came the NESIS Category 3 storm just before Valentines Day. I remember being a 9 year old and getting stranded in the mountains here in Tennessee with over a foot of snow.

 

[accu35]

Going to probably have some good hitting GEFS members in a few. Let’s see what happens.

Starting to get them members

 

[NBAcentel]

Euro AI is way better for both systems tbh

 

[trackersacker]

 

[trackersacker]

Oh man. Is the Euro bombing?

 

[TheBatman]

Starting to get them members

Improvement for many.