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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
ya rolling stable air injections since mid august haven't been ideal
interesting times ahead. however very hard to bank on any solution with two storms in the mix- no model is going to have a handle on how their outflows could destructively interfere with one another (if a storm even forms)- sit and gawk at the fun runs but don't get too wrapped up in them either
Westerly shear decided to have a stay-cation there this summer.
The westerly shear is the biggest issue in what has been a quiet Gulf basin this year. Water temperatures are plenty warm and the MJO is supposed to shift into a more favorable phase for development soon which should lessen the shear so that the Gulf might finally get things going within the next couple of weeks.
Worst case scenario but least likely here as far as wind/surge is ull tucked over Birmingham, 94l dissolves, 93L has a semi free environment as it moves towards the EC
lexxnchloe
Member
12 Z models trending well east for both.
Stormsfury
Member
To add to Joaquin information. It was the outflow channel that fed directly into the upper level bowling ball that fed directly into strong divergence from the upper low, creating a channel of deep thunderstorms that trained across the region, dumping substantial amounts of unrelenting rainfall across SCThat major Carolina rainfall generated flooding, especially in the CHS-CAE corridor, was an amazingly strange setup:
Although Joaquin ultimately tracked far to the east of the United States, a non-tropical low over the Southeast tapped into the hurricane's moisture. An atmospheric river developed between the two systems, resulting in record-shattering rains and flooding across North and South Carolina. Several areas of South Carolina saw accumulations exceeding the threshold for a 1-in-1,000-year event. The subsequent floods inundated large areas of the state—with areas around Charleston and Columbia hardest-hit—and killed 19 people.
Hurricane Joaquin - Wikipedia
en.m.wikipedia.org
Ensembles actually went West on Euro. Gfs a tad East.