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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

East of the Leeward Islands:
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Leeward Islands
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for slow
development over the next few days as the wave moves quickly
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. By the latter part
of this week, the system is expected to slow down and turn more
northwestward, and a tropical depression could form late this week
when the system is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the
Bahamas. Regardless of development, gusty winds and showers are
expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and
Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent
 
GaWx said:
East of the Leeward Islands:
A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Leeward Islands
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for slow
development over the next few days as the wave moves quickly
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. By the latter part
of this week, the system is expected to slow down and turn more
northwestward, and a tropical depression could form late this week
when the system is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the
Bahamas. Regardless of development, gusty winds and showers are
expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and
Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent
Click to expand...

I believe this is the thing the GFS has getting close to the east coast by next weekend
 
Brent said:
I believe this is the thing the GFS has getting close to the east coast by next weekend
Click to expand...

I agree. I just looked back on TT. The non-trustworthy GFS had a run as far back as the 0Z 9/18 run with a TC from this. The last couple of days have consistently developed this. But it’s the GFS although the Euro and Icon also have hints that this at least needs to be monitored.
 
SD said:
Joaquin all over againView attachment 174995
Click to expand...

That major Carolina rainfall generated flooding, especially in the CHS-CAE corridor, was an amazingly strange setup:

Although Joaquin ultimately tracked far to the east of the United States, a non-tropical low over the Southeast tapped into the hurricane's moisture. An atmospheric river developed between the two systems, resulting in record-shattering rains and flooding across North and South Carolina. Several areas of South Carolina saw accumulations exceeding the threshold for a 1-in-1,000-year event. The subsequent floods inundated large areas of the state—with areas around Charleston and Columbia hardest-hit—and killed 19 people.

en.m.wikipedia.org

Hurricane Joaquin - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org en.m.wikipedia.org
 
The two disturbances in the Atlantic bear watching, especially the western most one. The eastern disturbance is the one with the highest chance of development as of now, however, the forecast cone shows it following on the heels of Gabrielle and out to sea. The other disturbance will take longer to develop due to westerly shear but if it can get its act together it would be in a more favorable position to affect the East Coast in coming days.
 
weather bubba said:
The two disturbances in the Atlantic bear watching, especially the western most one. The eastern disturbance is the one with the highest chance of development as of now, however, the forecast cone shows it following on the heels of Gabrielle and out to sea. The other disturbance will take longer to develop due to westerly shear but if it can get its act together it would be in a more favorable position to affect the East Coast in coming days.
Click to expand...

Regarding the more E AOI:


The 12Z UKMET threatens Bermuda:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 22.0N 61.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2025 96 22.5N 61.5W 1010 35
0000UTC 27.09.2025 108 22.5N 62.5W 1008 37
1200UTC 27.09.2025 120 23.1N 63.5W 1007 38
0000UTC 28.09.2025 132 23.7N 64.1W 1005 45
1200UTC 28.09.2025 144 24.5N 66.1W 1003 41
0000UTC 29.09.2025 156 25.6N 66.8W 1000 43
1200UTC 29.09.2025 168 27.2N 66.4W 997 45
 
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms, and gusty winds across much of the Windward and
Leeward Islands. This wave is expected to move west-northwestward
at 15 to 20 mph, spreading heavy rainfall and gusty winds into
Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands tonight and Wednesday. The
system is then expected to slow down and turn northwestward when it
reaches the southwestern Atlantic near the Bahamas late this week,
and a tropical depression could form when the disturbance is in that
region. Interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
 
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