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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

Speaking of Duck: Keep in mind that this wasn’t even given a 10% chance in any TWO to become just a subtropical depression. The TWOs cover both tropical and subtropical depression+ development potential.


A classic hybrid non tropical with warm core structure supporting continuous NW side convection. Currently moving WNW towards the SE VA coast.
 
Calling for an above average season is the normal. If right they look smart and if wrong property and lives are saved and they will blame dust or aliens . Win/win
Oddly enough, how the EPAC started this year, and continued to churn up early in the season, I started seeing plenty of warning shots regarding the ATL. I went with only 12 TCs, 5 hurricanes, 2 major. Possibly could end up missing that on the high side.
 
For the E MDR lemon from the 2PM TWO:

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave just offshore of the west coast of Africa is
producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development of this system is possible towards the latter
part of this week as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, moving from
the eastern to central portion of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
 
A classic hybrid non tropical with warm core structure supporting continuous NW side convection. Currently moving WNW towards the SE VA coast.

I’ve been dealing with it since yesterday. Had a thunder boomer here in Elizabeth City at 5am. Now it’s just cloudy and windy. Rain pretty much ended by 11am today.
 
I’ve been dealing with it since yesterday. Had a thunder boomer here in Elizabeth City at 5am. Now it’s just cloudy and windy. Rain pretty much ended by 11am today.
I have a friend in Virginia Beach said the winds were very strong, heavy rain. 5" of rain. Since 9am (that was about 130pm when he sent it). I now think NHC dropped the ball on this one. Definitely looks like a hybrid subtropical storm ... one that might be posthumously upgraded after the season's end..

Screenshot_20250916_151909_Chrome.jpg
 
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