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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

GaWx said:
Speaking of Duck: Keep in mind that this wasn’t even given a 10% chance in any TWO to become just a subtropical depression. The TWOs cover both tropical and subtropical depression+ development potential.

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A classic hybrid non tropical with warm core structure supporting continuous NW side convection. Currently moving WNW towards the SE VA coast.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Calling for an above average season is the normal. If right they look smart and if wrong property and lives are saved and they will blame dust or aliens . Win/win
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Oddly enough, how the EPAC started this year, and continued to churn up early in the season, I started seeing plenty of warning shots regarding the ATL. I went with only 12 TCs, 5 hurricanes, 2 major. Possibly could end up missing that on the high side.
 
For the E MDR lemon from the 2PM TWO:

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave just offshore of the west coast of Africa is
producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development of this system is possible towards the latter
part of this week as it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph, moving from
the eastern to central portion of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
 
Stormsfury said:
A classic hybrid non tropical with warm core structure supporting continuous NW side convection. Currently moving WNW towards the SE VA coast.
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I’ve been dealing with it since yesterday. Had a thunder boomer here in Elizabeth City at 5am. Now it’s just cloudy and windy. Rain pretty much ended by 11am today.
 
tramadoc said:
I’ve been dealing with it since yesterday. Had a thunder boomer here in Elizabeth City at 5am. Now it’s just cloudy and windy. Rain pretty much ended by 11am today.
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I have a friend in Virginia Beach said the winds were very strong, heavy rain. 5" of rain. Since 9am (that was about 130pm when he sent it). I now think NHC dropped the ball on this one. Definitely looks like a hybrid subtropical storm ... one that might be posthumously upgraded after the season's end..

Screenshot_20250916_151909_Chrome.jpg
 
Shaggy said:
The wpac has that look of cranking out 2 over performers. This Atlantic season may be the slowest I can remember in the last 20 years? Think we have to back to the 2000s to see such a quiet season
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ForsythSnow said:
2014 was the last season around this slow
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Although 2014 was about this slow (only 3 fewer ACE), it didn’t get any more ACE after today til Oct 11th. So, due to Gabrielle, 2025 should be well ahead of 2014 by mid to late next week.

At this point, 2022 actually had 4 fewer ACE than 2025. However, Fiona was just becoming a MH and about to add a lot of ACE along with Ian becoming an H a week from now. So, 2025 is progged to soon fall well behind 2022. Regardless, 2022 ended with only 94 meaning 2025 could conceivably approach that if Gabrielle were to get strong along with an active October.

Although 2015 on this date had 2 more NS than 2025, it actually had 14 fewer ACE and didn’t reach the current 2025 level of ACE til early Oct. It finished with only 63. So, if Gabrielle were to get strong, 2025 would have a good shot at exceeding the entire 2015 with additional significant activity by early Oct.
 
GaWx said:
Although 2014 was about this slow (only 3 fewer ACE), it didn’t get any more ACE after today til Oct 11th. So, due to Gabrielle, 2025 should be well ahead of 2014 by mid to late next week.

At this point, 2022 actually had 4 fewer ACE than 2025. However, Fiona was just becoming a MH and about to add a lot of ACE along with Ian becoming an H a week from now. So, 2025 is progged to soon fall well behind 2022. Regardless, 2022 ended with only 94 meaning 2025 could conceivably approach that if Gabrielle were to get strong along with an active October.

Although 2015 on this date had 2 more NS than 2025, it actually had 14 fewer ACE and didn’t reach the current 2025 level of ACE til early Oct. It finished with only 63. So, if Gabrielle were to get strong, 2025 would have a good shot at exceeding the entire 2015 with additional significant activity by early Oct.
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2013 is the season I remember like this one. There was a lot of hype that year too and the worst hurricane was like 90 mph. Didn't even have a storm like Erin

And Karen died in the middle of the Gulf after being a legit hurricane threat. Still one of the only ones in the history of the Gulf
 
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