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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

The latest Euro Weeklies are the most active yet in the W Caribbean for the week of 10/13-19 (if I were in the FL pen., I’d be a bit concerned for midmonth):

Forecast nearby TC probabilities:
IMG_4737.png


Anomalies vs 2005-24 climo: wow!
IMG_4736.png
 
The E MDR AOI is now Invest 95L:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form this week as the system moves quickly across the
central tropical Atlantic, approaching portions of the Leeward
Islands by the latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
 
GaWx said:
The E MDR AOI is now Invest 95L:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form this week as the system moves quickly across the
central tropical Atlantic, approaching portions of the Leeward
Islands by the latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Click to expand...
Looks good on satellite and should make a new named storm. Sticking to the seasonal trend of early recurves so no worries with this one.
 
Shaggy said:
Looks good on satellite and should make a new named storm. Sticking to the seasonal trend of early recurves so no worries with this one.
Click to expand...

The Conus looks safe from this assuming it becomes a TD well out in the MDR. But the Leewards to near PR could still be threatened late week.

Assuming this develops well before the Lesser Antilles, the only potential threats to the SE anytime soon would appear to be from home-brew/much closer formations.

Although TS Chantal and offshore H Erin had significant impacts on parts of NC that I don’t think should be downplayed, the Conus has yet to be impacted with hurricane conditions. Will the Conus get lucky in that regard this year? Only 20% of full seasons have had no H impacts. The last one was in 2015. Only 6 La Niña seasons have had none though fairly recent ones like 2010 and 2000 are among the six. Many more (15) were during El Niño, which of course is intuitive.
 
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Regarding Invest 95L:

12Z UKMET: further SW than 0Z run as it goes WNW to Leewards and PR followed by NW and then NNW turn to near Erin’s position NE of Turks/Caicos (pretty weak and a little weaker than 0Z) with a safe recurve from the Conus as it is taken out by an upper trough:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.6N 53.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.10.2025 84 14.2N 55.1W 1009 36
1200UTC 09.10.2025 96 15.4N 58.6W 1009 37
0000UTC 10.10.2025 108 16.5N 61.9W 1008 33
1200UTC 10.10.2025 120 17.1N 64.7W 1009 34
0000UTC 11.10.2025 132 18.9N 67.3W 1008 33
1200UTC 11.10.2025 144 20.5N 69.1W 1008 38
0000UTC 12.10.2025 156 22.3N 70.6W 1007 34
1200UTC 12.10.2025 168 24.2N 71.4W 1006 33
—————

Edit: Does anyone know how to save an image from Pivotal if not a member without having to do a screenshot?

IMG_4751.png
 
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Shaggy said:
Northern stream gets cranking on the 06z gfs. Nothing threatening in the long range but it would be time to watch the GOM for any development as it would most likely get yanked north quickly into the parade of troughs
Click to expand...
CAG looks like it wants to crank.
 
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