Hilarious this is still moving around within 48ish hours
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Tropical Major Hurricane Erin
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Creeping closer to OBX
Notably the Euro is more west and stronger.
I don't think many people honestly thought this one had a shot to make it inside 75W. It may not make it but it'll get close it appears. This storm has scrapped and clawed it's way west it's entire existence. Pretty impressive.
lexxnchloe
Member
Tropical storm warnings for the OBX at 5pm?
it's been pretty systematic. did weekend RI help pump the ridge stronger than guidance suggested?
lexxnchloe
Member
I predict tropical storm warnings from the mouth of the chesapeake bay to Cape Lookout.
lexxnchloe
Member
CFS has been the best model this season. Use it for patterns, not intensity.
lexxnchloe
Member
Looking at things today its hard to see a screaming hard east turn the next 2 days. 60-70 mph gusts for the OBX seem very possible.
NoSnowATL
Member
Doesn’t really start moving N then NE until Tuesday.
Maybe? That and just those westward lurches it had a few times along with the synoptic adjustments have all worked in tandem to shift it a lot further west than what was modeled a week ago.
Brent
Member
Yeah I know it's still going to largely miss but
honestly it's pretty amazing a storm that formed over the Cabo Verde Islands(much further north than usual) can even get this close to the US
honestly it's pretty amazing a storm that formed over the Cabo Verde Islands(much further north than usual) can even get this close to the US
Sheesh
Lexxxxx with a good call.
Shaggy
Member
The thing about minor Westward shifts is the Wind field is so big that unlike a compact system.a small.cha ge can spread those winds to the obx pretty easy. Gonna be some houses lost to the sea this week for sure.
lexxnchloe
Member
As i expected
Shaggy
Member
They are gathering data. Next several runs will be interesting
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Man. We are lucky that when Erin splashed down, her first movement was northward, because if not, she would've caused a mess for many somebodies.
Even as is, I saw something talking about 50 rip current rescues on the OBX today.
Even as is, I saw something talking about 50 rip current rescues on the OBX today.
lexxnchloe
Member
A few more miles west
Henry2326
Member
Shaggy
Member
Quite the flight path
Probably sampling the upstream environment to help with the modeling I’d guess
Shaggy
Member
I wouldn't expect too many changes but a shift of 50 miles with this wind field is a problem for the obx
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Too many people saying "oh it's going to stay just offshore, we'll be fine" may be leading to some paying the price already. Apparently, you had a commercial airliner fly through the storm to boot as well. Made it through, but still, silly.
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It just won't stop.
Shaggy
Member
Imagine of this had stayed on that wnw heading another 12-18 hours!
Wonder if the west correction continues tonight.
Shaggy
Member
Nearly 85 rip current rescues reported at New Hanover County beaches https://www.wect.com/2025/08/18/nearly-30-rip-current-rescues-reported-new-hanover-county-beach/
jaw719
Member
Waves are starting to get big on Isle of Palms
lexxnchloe
Member
Thats tonights 18Z?
It's going end up being a close call to see if the OBX gets into hurricane force winds if Erin gets any closer than projected by current model trends.
Henry2326
Member
Windy app....wow I love it.
Swirling is Icon, which aligns with UK.
The cone is Euro.
Yep, it's more than likely going to push hurricane winds into NC.
I hate those dang spaghetti models.
Might I add, this is the fifth (5th....five...5) day that ICON has placed the storm in their model in the same spot that looks to possibly verify. Magnificent job!!!!!!!
Swirling is Icon, which aligns with UK.
The cone is Euro.
Yep, it's more than likely going to push hurricane winds into NC.
I hate those dang spaghetti models.
Might I add, this is the fifth (5th....five...5) day that ICON has placed the storm in their model in the same spot that looks to possibly verify. Magnificent job!!!!!!!
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Brad P made a post on X, twitter, whatever you prefer of 50 rescues today due to rip currents at Wrightsville beach!
Carolina Fever
Member
Never will understand why people ignore the red flag warnings and go into the ocean. The amount of rip current rescues today in NC is ridiculous.
Also, we're seeing once again how the models can change with the track all the way until we're inside 24 hours. Seems to happen almost everytime with tropical systems the last decade or so.
Also, we're seeing once again how the models can change with the track all the way until we're inside 24 hours. Seems to happen almost everytime with tropical systems the last decade or so.
snowlover91
Member
Although it’s not good with TCs, the NAM is lining up in the euro/uk/icon camp as it ticks NW again.
Rip currents are by a good margin the biggest killer on beaches overall on average annually. These can be deadly even in much calmer conditions than what Erin is causing.