-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
packfan98
Moderator
It definitely seemed to be tracking better up through hr 42. We’ve often seen times where a dampening out southern wave will hold on a little stronger and longer than the models say. It’s one of the reasons we get a bit juicier system than modeled even with similar placed features.
That band that runs through the Piedmont into Raleigh and East is a interesting and emerging feature on the GFS 
ForsythSnow
Moderator
For NC. Further west it keeps going SW and colder.
astroworld123
Member
I am terrified of the inevitable cutoff that is probably gonna result in a lot of people in Wake County (possibly me) being very disappointed.
Literally 10-15 miles further south on the gfs gets the southern suburbs of BHM in on the game but I’m not buying it. I’d feel dang good in northern Alabama. Feel like Cullman north could get a surprise
Those bands almost always verify further NW too.
This. I am happy with this. Gets my backyard in the action, and keeps the east coast peeps happy. If we can get it to creep down to Bham to keep my Bama homies happy, icing on the cake.
I’d cash out with 5.2” IMBY per the 18z GFS. 
rburrel2
Member
Yep you've got that, plus you've got saturation all the way up to 200mb for several hours Wednesday morning. Plus the better jet dynamics helping with lift for a little while.
A lot of things going in our favor for squeezing out precip.
I'd be shocked if we all don't wind up with at least .15-.20 of liquid.
LickWx
Member
Its orientation keeps changing to more SW-NE, heights rising ahead of the storm...
Licks new call ignore the 2 foot predictions from yesterday
Wake county will ride the line, Wake Forest still the jackpot here, Zebulon eating more sleet now so Ill go 4-6 inches Wake Forest, almost all snow, 2-4 inches Zebulon half snow half sleet. my friends in southern wake don't fret you'll get 2 inches, mostly sleet. RDU same as Wake Forest.
Metwannabe is getting 6-8 , jackpot will be a bit northeast of him, if trends keep going like the nam has done he will also ride the line
Shane, same as southern wake
I think charlotte will eek out 1-2 inches from this and maybe if they are lucky another inch from Thursday
That is where I think we stand now
I'd like to see some better trends through tomorrow morning's model runs before I allow myself to excited.
lusting4Adusting
Member
The thing I generally like at this point is that the thermal profiles for our area look pretty solid across all the modeling at this point, so all we need is a touch over .1 to get a solid little something outta this thing. I may be crazy, but the way this thing is setting up sure looks like .1+ to me at this point.
J1C1111
Member
Hey Lick! What about Forest City. What are you thinking. A inch or two maybe?
I will be in Huntsville on biz Tuesday night - hoping to get some action
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
SnowNiner
Member
That dry fish hook in the foothills has got to fill in doesn’t it? That’s just gnawing at me, was hoping with heavier returns that would fill in this run. I guess the low is transferring right in that area?
If that sucker would just fill in it would wonders for many.
rburrel2
Member
Look how awful the NAM is/was inside of 45 hrs. Trash
LickWx
Member
My unprofessional opinion is T-1 right now your way, these are the trends you want to keep seeing on models though so that upper end is realized, then perhaps you could get a couple inches.
SnowNiner
Member
Ouch, that’s the one with the most precip and we’re counting on.
RAP is juiced like the nam, lol. Not great still at this range though 
rburrel2
Member
Major positive trends for Northern MS/AL/GA/SC and western NC on the GEFS.
Bad trends for Virginia and Eastern NC though.
Bad trends for Virginia and Eastern NC though.
LickWx
Member
drying or just more mixing/shifting of orientation?
Think we are just scratching and clawing to get a light snow on the ground here with the weak southern wave that is translating west to east. The coastal blow up or mini-blowup is likely a thing for the eastern 1/2 of the state. Improvements would most likely come from a slight sharpening of the southern wave. That’s probably the best we can do at this point. I think the GFS looks like a reasonable forecast for us. Always a chance this could tick warmer, but there are limits to that based on how weak this is overall aloft
Looks like mostly mixing to me.
EDIT: I guess some of both, actually. Rose tinted glasses here, LOL.
Last edited:
rburrel2
Member
A combination of both for Eastern NC. Some members mixing, some members not as robust with the coastal development.
Rap is basically a widespread 1-1.5 for the overrunning stuff and then more for the eastern areas with the coastal. Not unrealistic tbh, and this could go either way 
RAH updated AFD from late this afternoon (don’t think this has been posted yet):
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Monday...
* A Winter Weather Watch has been issued for Wednesday morning
into Thursday morning for most of central NC.
* The most hazardous travel conditions will likely be Wednesday
afternoon into the overnight hours.
A resurgence of cold/dry Arctic air will spill east of the northern
Appalachian mountains from the parent high over southern
Saskatchewan and northern Plains late Tues into early Wed and will
set the stage for our winter event. How far south this backdoor cold
front and very low dew points (teens to single digits) in its wake
penetrate into central NC Wed morning will be vital given the lack
of a favorable strength/location of a parent high to our north.
From a pattern recognition perspective, the synoptic environment
will be driven by initially a flat mid/upper level pattern with
dominant lift coming from jet dynamics in a favorable right-entrance
region of a 140-160 kt 250mb jet and strengthening southerly WAA at
850mb. An initially weak surface low will develop Wed morning over
the central Gulf coast states and track ENE in a Miller A
cyclogenesis pattern and phase with a sharpening inverted trough off
the Carolina coast through Thurs morning. This pattern will most
likely result in broad transition zones of precipitation types
between snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain Wed morning. This
transition zone will likely lift north through the day, stall
somewhere over the Piedmont, and then collapse back south and
east Wed night into early Thurs as the surface low offshore deepens.
Changes from previous forecast have a subtle shift farther south in
this transition zone given the slightly deeper surface low and
colder air farther south in NC. Overall the magnitudes of snow and
ice accumulation have remained relatively the same (1 to 6
inches of snow and sleet accumulation, greatest towards the
northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. Ice accumulation
range from a tenth up to a third of an inch). These amounts
will likely result in hazardous travel conditions across the
watch area with scattered to numerous power outages possible
where the greatest ice accumulation occurs.
The eventual scenario that unfolds will be very susceptible to minor
changes in the synoptic and mesoscale pattern and timeframe
between now and Wed morning, so expect continued tweaks to the
forecast as forecast confidence increases.
High temperatures on Wed will likely occur early Wed morning ahead
of precipitation moving in with surface temperatures dropping as the
overall thermo-profile saturates towards the wetbulb temperature.
Overnight lows will be well below normal and range from the low to
mid 20s with near teens across the northern Piedmont.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 345 PM Monday...
* A Winter Weather Watch has been issued for Wednesday morning
into Thursday morning for most of central NC.
* The most hazardous travel conditions will likely be Wednesday
afternoon into the overnight hours.
A resurgence of cold/dry Arctic air will spill east of the northern
Appalachian mountains from the parent high over southern
Saskatchewan and northern Plains late Tues into early Wed and will
set the stage for our winter event. How far south this backdoor cold
front and very low dew points (teens to single digits) in its wake
penetrate into central NC Wed morning will be vital given the lack
of a favorable strength/location of a parent high to our north.
From a pattern recognition perspective, the synoptic environment
will be driven by initially a flat mid/upper level pattern with
dominant lift coming from jet dynamics in a favorable right-entrance
region of a 140-160 kt 250mb jet and strengthening southerly WAA at
850mb. An initially weak surface low will develop Wed morning over
the central Gulf coast states and track ENE in a Miller A
cyclogenesis pattern and phase with a sharpening inverted trough off
the Carolina coast through Thurs morning. This pattern will most
likely result in broad transition zones of precipitation types
between snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain Wed morning. This
transition zone will likely lift north through the day, stall
somewhere over the Piedmont, and then collapse back south and
east Wed night into early Thurs as the surface low offshore deepens.
Changes from previous forecast have a subtle shift farther south in
this transition zone given the slightly deeper surface low and
colder air farther south in NC. Overall the magnitudes of snow and
ice accumulation have remained relatively the same (1 to 6
inches of snow and sleet accumulation, greatest towards the
northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain. Ice accumulation
range from a tenth up to a third of an inch). These amounts
will likely result in hazardous travel conditions across the
watch area with scattered to numerous power outages possible
where the greatest ice accumulation occurs.
The eventual scenario that unfolds will be very susceptible to minor
changes in the synoptic and mesoscale pattern and timeframe
between now and Wed morning, so expect continued tweaks to the
forecast as forecast confidence increases.
High temperatures on Wed will likely occur early Wed morning ahead
of precipitation moving in with surface temperatures dropping as the
overall thermo-profile saturates towards the wetbulb temperature.
Overnight lows will be well below normal and range from the low to
mid 20s with near teens across the northern Piedmont.
Drizzle Snizzle
Member
No way Central Mississippi is getting 6" lol.
rburrel2
Member
Less coastal low development helps qpf over the upstate and Western NC, even Charlotte benefits from later coastal deepening I think.
WxBlue
Meteorologist
This is a tough one. I'm already not feeling great about my NW NC numbers so I'm sure I'll be scrambling to adjust things before my final forecast tomorrow.
Chattownsnow
Member
To only manage an inch of snowfall out of this model depiction is extremely disappointing lol. Sprawling 1055 high pushing in from Montana with a gulf low south of Louisiana and no lakes low, and I get an inch of snow 
I will have a map out tonight. I have way more in the mountains than you.
rburrel2
Member
I've got a theory.... the upstate to Charlotte seems to be doing the best even when the southern wave is weak and there is less coastal development b/c allows more banding to develop when the better upper level jet dynamics move overhead.
Otherwise, that's competing with the subsidence from the dampening southern wave and deepening coastal low.
There's definitely some weird goldilocks combination of factors at play here and it's hard to determine what mixture works best. But we can definitely luck in to .2-.3 of qpf even with a bad southern wave and a weak/bad coastal low development.
Otherwise, that's competing with the subsidence from the dampening southern wave and deepening coastal low.
There's definitely some weird goldilocks combination of factors at play here and it's hard to determine what mixture works best. But we can definitely luck in to .2-.3 of qpf even with a bad southern wave and a weak/bad coastal low development.
18z UKMET is still pretty bad. Maybe a little better than 12z, but zero is zero. I guess we toss given it’s so far out in left field and prone to suppress?
SnowNiner
Member
To only manage an inch of snowfall out of this model depiction is extremely disappointing lol. Sprawling 1055 high pushing in from Montana with a gulf low south of Louisiana and no lakes low, and I get an inch of snow
Agreed. The Nam, cam, and gfs look like such healthy footprints, classic even, you’d think it have more robust qpf
Cary_Snow95
Member
Odd it seems the gfs and GEFS are heading opposite directions for central nc
Getting so so close to Atlanta… basically one county away from Dekalb County and the heart of the city. I’m hopeful for you NC folks but damn if it actually makes it over here I’ll be so damn happy.
Cary_Snow95
Member
I swear the rap is one of those models where the precip depiction and shading over exaggerates intensity. Always looks like a heavy snow storm just to find the map prints flurries