Clipper looks legit at the very end of the latest graf FWIW
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broken025
Member
For my area I’m more excited about that second round. The first round will probably be mixed -------- down here that may get the ground partially white.
packfan98
Moderator
If you need some digital snow hopium, go check out the new SREF. I know it’s not right and I hate it as a model, so I’m not going to post it out of protest.
wow
Member
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
This system has Upstate SC and North GA in so much confusion.. Do we all get rain? Do we get a brief mix? Do we get a brief burst of snow? Or do we get an all snow and or snow/mix event. A lot to be figured out over the next 30 hours.. These small shifts drastically change things run for run. I'm honestly just completely lost when it comes to forecasting this down here. I'm sure many others are as well.
rburrel2
Member
Good sign for Northern MS/AL/GA/SC, imo, even if it is the crummy SREF mean.
broken025
Member
Love those ARW models. They are never right but they always give me hope right until the very end.
WxBlue
Meteorologist
SREF is very 
. Not sure I'm buying it.
. Not sure I'm buying it.This kinda feels like snomageddon. Are we in for a surprise?
wow
Member
Hurts to look at that knowing it can quickly take it away at the last second. HOWEVER! I do like the increasing odds of 1"+ QPF coming back on the trends. Really blowing up that coastal!
I know what you’re thinking - more snow on a colder Thursday morning compared to the main “show”
South trend here with the 700mb vort pass for Thursday
rburrel2
Member
Definitely not buying it, but every SREF cycle that's not a wholesale change to the Euro camp gives some hope for a middle road solution.SREF is very
Mpirone12
Member
Give me a halfway point to that and I’ll take it as a win. I cant recall a storm recently that has had the models struggle quite as much as this storm has.SREF is very
wow
Member
I know it's been a long time but this is par for the course for just about every impending winter storm.
Certainly what many of us want to see...
We basically know the 3km NAM is too far north, so this would basically be what the 3km NAM is showing corrected for it's north bias.
packfan98
Moderator
DT’s call map.
ok sure why not
rburrel2
Member
Early on, pretty big changes with the 00z Hrrr with the southern energy that just came onshore compared to the 18z run. Looks like it will have a stronger southern wave as a result.
Jimmy stamped 
wow
Member
AI following the trend with more expansive precip back west. Looking better!
That's quite the jump but it's course grade quality so hard to tell yet
SnowNiner
Member
I’m not buying the amounts but man, that’s the footprint you’d expect for a miller a that hugs the gulf coast, and turns the corner. I’m hoping the overrunning over performs to get the heavier amounts through clt to the upstate and that hole in precip rounds out. That wave needs to sharpen up. Whatever happened to our trend this year of waves digging more than expected?
Mpirone12
Member
You know you have been heart broken all these years when you’re reading y’all’s updates when the models come out about it looking good and waiting for the punch line. “EDIT: loses the storm at hour 18” 
Tonight's NBM will absolutely be lit
Almost a February 2013 look to that
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Gotta love the boundary 3 inches.
weather bubba
Member
The next NAM run should be interesting since we are getting close to its effective range.
I mentioned this several days ago in a comment to Burrel2.
The reason I remember this particular storm was bc it was on my wife's birthday.
I bought her tickets for Kid Rock/Buckcherry that day.
A storm similar to a spring shower or thunderstorm came out of no where began to snow at 42° or so and in 45 to an hour.
We had 2.5 - 3 inches in that short timespan.
It was Feb 16 2013.
You could literally get in your car and drive up 29 towards GVL from Greer and within 3-5 miles there was nothing.
What a memorable storm that was.
MichaelJ
Member
Two things from DT are certain like death and taxes 1. Richmond gets slammed 2. his amounts are almost ALWAYS overdone
The southern stream wave on the hrrr has better tilt/orientation vs the 18z run. Wonder how that will translate
iGRXY
Member
The only thing that makes the SREF QPF some what plausible (probably shave 0.15-0.25” off) is the 500mb supports a more expansive precip shield with higher totals than the 0.15-0.25” being shown right now
