Yeah 3k NAM is about to go ham.... oh boy!
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weather bubba
Member
The NAM is bringing the goods with the QPF. The 540 line runs along the NC/VA border though introducing a lot more ice even though the 850s are colder. Interesting run.
Still looking like a big jump over western NC and mount airy up into VA according to nam. Big dry slot
iGRXY
Member
It’s very dry so far
Expected this after the 21z SREF, but you do love to see it.
mx3gsr92
Member
Drier where? You need to provide more detail if you're going to make these comments.
It’s drier regional wide vs the NAM 12km. Lol. Still good for you
Bigedd09
Member
Def much drier for western nc/upstate
iGRXY
Member
There are so many free sites you can literally go look at. God gave you thumbs, use them
NCSNOW
Member
Told yall the cams would fall in line with the 12z JMA today.
Tsappfrog20
Member
3k nam is looking really good
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
iGRXY
Member
Like man what a kick in the sack
There yes, here no....
Mpirone12
Member
To my untrained eye Greensboro looks like it’s going to improve this run.
Good for Eastern VA and NC but not so much for Western NC and Western VA.
Come on y'all tone it down. This name calling and personal attack, sarcastic, snarky comments is ridiculous.
areas back west that dropped off this NAM run are still close on moistening up the sfc layer. could end up being pain
Here's 18z
00z
looks as good or better along/east US-1 QPF wise. also don't think it'll take much to get back to some qpf back west
Here's 18z
00z
looks as good or better along/east US-1 QPF wise. also don't think it'll take much to get back to some qpf back west
Nope def some sleet w/snow
Yeah, folks out west were saying this run sucked for them for good reason. Actually, didn’t expect that part after the SREF. Still good / great for C / E NC (I think even GSO ticked up) like to see another bigger run. Plenty of room for expansion of the precip field, too. The 12km NAM has warm noses galore, but the 3km looks better to me so far although I’m on my phone and so can’t really look into skew Ts, etc.
I honestly think there will be more precipitation in the foothills and mountains. The mountains always score.
I honestly think there will be more precipitation in the foothills and mountains. The mountains always score.
iGRXY
Member
areas further south and east improved but it still cut totals down for pretty much everyone that’s not extreme Ne NC and SW Va. the I77 corridor and west got absolutely robbed
WolfpackHomer91
Member
I mean yea…. But now it literally just looks realistic bc it looks like every other model. Can someone with a yellow tag explain how in the world it’s 2025 and every 6hrs you see these wild swings 36hrs out ? Is it a setup thing ? Is it poor data ? I mean anyone ?
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Jeez
Looks like RDU stayed all snow based on 3km NAM soundings. Got really close / isothermal at 0C a couple of hours.
That little snow hole up there in SWVA yeah that is where I am at. Just need that to fill in. It is literally just two counties
Maybe not as ham as I would've liked but over 18 hrs of snowfall, still snowing at end of run with 8"..... I'll take it
rburrel2
Member
Both the 3km NAM and FV3 have a nice precip maxima over NE GA and the western upstate. The 3km NAM is a torch at the surface at 7am Wednesday though so it's showing rain. Has me at 41/34... literally every other model has me around 36/30 so I'm not too concerned about that at the moment.
WxBlue
Meteorologist
It's like what Eric talked about, the right entrance of mid-ATL jet streak should support more synoptic support for our storm so would expect NW precip shield to be a bit more juicy.
Nam has it flurrying/light sn for most of night into the morning as well 
It looks like the NAM 3k has the same line of thunderstorms in the Gulf that that the HRRR showed. The line is oriented in a way that interferes with moisture transport.
Eric workshops his thoughts here and if he gets more than 15 likes he tweets it 
Yeah it's light but also a higher ratio snow, so those lollipops of moderate snow mixed in there might could add a little more light accums
NAM12 been pushing those >0c 850s further in each run today. Do not count that out
Yeah E/W thunderstorm complex will rob it, N/S orientation will actually help enhance it
ChattaVOL
Member
further north or further south?
mx3gsr92
Member
From two different Mets on AmericanWX
"When the 3 km shows details differently than the 12 km, the 3 km is better way, way more than it isn’t. "
"Because the parent NAM is low resolution."
NAM 3km is to believed here.
"When the 3 km shows details differently than the 12 km, the 3 km is better way, way more than it isn’t. "
"Because the parent NAM is low resolution."
NAM 3km is to believed here.