-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Yep, that little sucker snuck up on me … I had no clue it was even coming bc I don’t normally start coming in here till January. I looked outside and was like what the heck…. And it lasted maybe 2hrs but Laid pretty well for what it was. I got 1” or so. Mother in Law in Granite Quarry got 2”
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
CMC backed precip off for most everybody that run
Pops
Member
I don’t blame Huntsville nws for no winter weather warning or advisory based on these models
interestedclimatist
Member
Honestly, we probably should toss it at this point in time. It’s a little too close to the event for the cmc rn. The cmc also hasn’t been reliable this season so I wouldn’t think too much of it. Focus on NAM, HRRR, and NBM for now
CMC about useless at this range.
Newest RGEM looks dryer back west.Edit: don’t know why energy was more robust and better tilt. Maybe someone else can elaborate on where it went wrong.
Last edited:
WolfpackHomer91
Member
UKMET .... has officially 90% Lost the entire event for anyone even Wake County, Def GSO
blueheronNC
Member
For RDU, UKMET 12z was 0.8” and 18z was 0.2” so the 2.4” with 00z was actually an improvement. Raleigh northeast toward the coast actually moistened up.
interestedclimatist
Member
UKMET improved…it’s also not really in range atm
0z GEFS as of 12z Wednesday morning. Moist.
No, the 00z UKMET was actually a huge improvement. RDU went from literally being shut out to some snow. It’s still bad but seems like it may be folding towards the other modeling after being way further east for a day’s worth of models.
00z GEFS beefed up a little compared to the 18z run, as well, although still lighter than the op. I’m not sure it’s really worth looking at ensembles at this point, though, and I’m curious if the lower resolution might harm their ability to see the coastal blowing up.
Now, we await the Euro, which I should probably not stay up for before it gives me a jump scare.
Now, we await the Euro, which I should probably not stay up for before it gives me a jump scare.
I probably shouldn’t say this, but early on I think the 00z Euro may come in a little better than 18z. We’ll see. Marginal but it looks like heights are pumping a little more and the energy looks a little better aligned / stronger. It’s early though. Watch it come in worse. 
Euro trend . Maybe we’ve stopped the bleeding
First Euro run to trend a little better for us in a while. Gives me hope. Still not where I’d like it. GFS is my ride or die. 
EDIT: Bigger improvements out east. Great run for Moyock, probably gets them to double digits after a disappointing 18z run.
EDIT: Bigger improvements out east. Great run for Moyock, probably gets them to double digits after a disappointing 18z run.
Last edited:
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
So many people have been concerned about supression and losing the storm but why would we not want more supression and have that legitimate snow in AR, TN, and KY move down our way? I mean it's not going to happen at this lead time but bigger confluence could have slid that right down to us. Would have been much colder and a higher ratio snow.
Not sure I saw anyone post the FV3. Most interesting part of this map for me is Northern Bama getting a nice hit where the current blend of models is basically nothing 
uptwnnycwx
Member
P
so
Six Mile Wx
Member
6z Nam 3k is almost on top of the 0z Euro now. The Euro looks colder and has more moisture. I expect the NAM to be fully in line with the Euro by 12z. Then we can start sweating the thermals on the NAM. Let’s hope the Euro doesn’t cave!
Six Mile Wx
Member
Large drop off on the 6z Nam, later in the run, compared to 0z run.
out of town so I can’t post maps, but the 6z GFS looked good for central NC. Almost as good as 0z.
Cary_Snow95
Member
We even lost the GRAF. Lol
Yeah everything backed off some on the 06z suite, with maybe the exception of the RGEM. Just as it looked like the bleeding had stopped and we reversing course, sheesh
First call…. Gonna go the route of WAA more in line with the American models… been torched to hard by it… extremely difficult forecast 
weather bubba
Member
Here's a snowfall map from the latest GFS. This storm may not end up being the big dog many of us were hoping for but at least there will be a little snow on the ground for some of us. We simply need more QPF to work with if we want a more robust snowfall.
Last edited:
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
6z RGEM
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
6z RGEM
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
If anyone has an accumulation map better than TT, feel free to share
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
ChattaVOL
Member
Pain.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NWS Product updates from overnight.
GSP has WWAs up (left off SC for now). RAH has warnings for VA/NC border and E counties. Says they are waiting to pull trigger for remaining CWA. Likely trying to decide between warning/advisory.
GSP has WWAs up (left off SC for now). RAH has warnings for VA/NC border and E counties. Says they are waiting to pull trigger for remaining CWA. Likely trying to decide between warning/advisory.
It’s probably doing better with the related warm air advection and QPF generation from it quite honestly.
packfan98
Moderator
I was getting ready to post that trend. Looks like the Euro and GFS are getting in relative agreement. It’s such a sharp cutoff that each little tick will result in gaining or losing an inch. Throw in the metro areas this is effecting and it really becomes a difficult forecast.
I would suspect that the areas west will fill in a little more with the Nam suite today. Get two more ticks west for the triangle crew and it’s a decent event. I really would like to see the RDU crew get 4 inches.
Warm nose out east trending stronger on the euro… I don’t buy how far SE it is with the heavier snow, that trend at 850mb makes me more confident. Gonna likely see QPF increase as the warm nose/warm air advection starts to be sniffed out further on the euro
packfan98
Moderator
Matthew thinks parts of the Charlotte metro might not get any snow accumulation. I hope that is not the case.
Bigedd09
Member
Maybe the heavy thunderstorms in the gulf? I've heard that can rob moisture back this way
ChattaVOL
Member
To my untrained eye it looks like the precip shield on HRRR and NAM are underdone VS what is happening in real time.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk