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Wintry Feb. 19-20

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NBM …. Man, it feels like this could be sooooo much better if it weren’t for EURO / UKMET weighing us down. 2.5 even with that is solid….. but if those two were even the same ballpark as everything I feel the numbers on this map would all be 1-2” higher in every location


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KyloG said:
18z euro….Good grief. 0z going to be a complete whiff on this model


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Yea those 2 are so far off it’s not even wishcasting to let them go. But you can tell on some Mets Graphics they’re posting for first call maps that’s what they’re weighing heavy on. Like almost looks identical a few Mets I’ve seen like hugging hugging it lol …. I get picking the lowest ones, but yea what’s it seeing though others aren’t ? Anyone know?


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Precip Start time for my backyard and the Upstate in general:

12z AIFS: 7am
18z GFS,ICON,RGEM: 8am
18z Euro: 11am
21z RAP: 9am
18z Hrrr: Doesn't have any precip 🤷‍♂️
I'm ignoring the NAM products b/c they're so far off with their depiction.

The Euro seems like an outlier to me for now.
 
rburrel2 said:
Precip Start time for my backyard and the Upstate in general:

12z AIFS: 7am
18z GFS,ICON,RGEM: 8am
18z Euro: 11am
21z RAP: 9am
18z Hrrr: Doesn't have any precip 🤷‍♂️
I'm ignoring the NAM products b/c they're so far off with their depiction.

The Euro seems like an outlier to me for now.
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With the NAM failing in MO today as you posted, gives one pause that maybe the Euro is on to something? NAM trend you posted there showed it drying out massively in the lead up
 
@Shaggy & @lexxnchloe , ya'll asleep? We might be in for yet another pleasant, (or not), Surprise!
A couple more tiks south, southEast..
NWSKILM..

**
Dry air advection aloft will lead to higher ice accretion
efficiency during the evening and overnight as rain rates
decrease.
Total ice accumulations of up to a quarter of an inch
are possible for the cities of Lumberton, Elizabethtown, and
Burgaw. AND

Pender County, (Brunswick/New Hanover soon too follow?), has been included in the Watch, but the
range of potential ice accumulations is large.

Coastal areas are
expected to accumulation around a tenth of an inch of ice or
less due to warmer air near the coast.

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued from Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday morning for portions of the area. Confidence
is low regarding ice totals due to uncertainties with dry air
advection following the surface low.

However, models underwent a
significant southern shift today with colder air building into
the Carolinas and little change in the available moisture.
Ensemble spread remains large for the Watch area, 25th to 75th
percentiles are around a tenth to just greater than a quarter of
an inch with a mean of around two tenths. Confidence in totals
around a quarter of an inch are near 50%, but additional
forecasts will narrow down the potential need of an Ice Storm
Warning or Winter Weather Advisory.**
 
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The latest Euro run was dreadful! The LP in this run was weak sauce and never gets above the NC/SC line before it shoots out to sea. This storm is a flat mess with no amping whatsoever. I'll feel better if the other models hold serve other than the UKMet which will probably agree with the Euro. It's hard to bet against the Euro but this is one time I hope it is totally off base.
 
SENC said:
@Shaggy & @lexxnchloe , ya'll asleep? We might be in for yet another pleasant, (or not), Surprise!
A couple more tiks south, southEast..
NWSKILM..

**
Dry air advection aloft will lead to higher ice accretion
efficiency during the evening and overnight as rain rates
decrease.
Total ice accumulations of up to a quarter of an inch
are possible for the cities of Lumberton, Elizabethtown, and
Burgaw. AND

Pender County, (Brunswick/New Hanover soon too follow?), has been included in the Watch, but the
range of potential ice accumulations is large.

Coastal areas are
expected to accumulation around a tenth of an inch of ice or
less due to warmer air near the coast.

A Winter Storm Watch has been issued from Wednesday afternoon
through Thursday morning for portions of the area. Confidence
is low regarding ice totals due to uncertainties with dry air
advection following the surface low.

However, models underwent a
significant southern shift today with colder air building into
the Carolinas and little change in the available moisture.
Ensemble spread remains large for the Watch area, 25th to 75th
percentiles are around a tenth to just greater than a quarter of
an inch with a mean of around two tenths. Confidence in totals
around a quarter of an inch are near 50%, but additional
forecasts will narrow down the potential need of an Ice Storm
Warning or Winter Weather Advisory.**
Click to expand...
We will find out soon, lol
 
I know this might be a dumb question, but is it possible that new data was ingested from our western wave into the American models before it’s available to the foreign models? I’m wondering if the ukmet and euro will look better at 0z.
 
I also know that with one of our systems this winter that the Euro was the driest model leading into the event. It had .15” of precip while other models were .3 - .4 and ended up with over .4. I know that every setup is different, but there are recent times where the euro verified too dry.
 
Feel free to move this to the complaining thread but do Winter Storm Watches not get upgraded to advisories anymore? This still seems to be an advisory level event up to the foothills but GSP only has the I-77/I-85 corridor in a HWO.
 
For reference…from 36-48 hours out the Euro/GFS blend worked well. The NAM was embarrassing and the RGEM was a smidge cold but good with precip. FV did ok too


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packfan98 said:
I know this might be a dumb question, but is it possible that new data was ingested from our western wave into the American models before it’s available to the foreign models? I’m wondering if the ukmet and euro will look better at 0z.
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Don't know for sure, but I believe the observational data is shared across model centers. Each model has different model initialization techniques though
 
packfan98 said:
I also know that with one of our systems this winter that the Euro was the driest model leading into the event. It had .15” of precip while other models were .3 - .4 and ended up with over .4. I know that every setup is different, but there are recent times where the euro verified too dry.
Click to expand...
Yep…was just looking at that. From 48 hours out Euro had Raleigh with .25”, RGEM 0.5” and RDU recorded 0.52”.


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