3km NAM jet is a good bit further north than 12z Euro with upper jet streak. But it does seem to be enhancing precip.
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WolfpackHomer91
Member
Unfortunately, thats possible ... thats why I said yesterday your Hot line is Riedsville - Williamsburg VA that allowed for the inevitable NW trend occurring ect. Someone in that line will be the winner
Energy is looking a little beefier to me on the 18z ICON. Could be good.
EDIT: Scratch that, looks like it's going to be a worse run at the surface. 3-4" at RDU, 1-2" at GSO, 6-10" in NE NC / SE VA. It is colder which helps southern Wake. It's also probably a trash model (comparatively) at this range.
EDIT: Scratch that, looks like it's going to be a worse run at the surface. 3-4" at RDU, 1-2" at GSO, 6-10" in NE NC / SE VA. It is colder which helps southern Wake. It's also probably a trash model (comparatively) at this range.
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Tsappfrog20
Member
Latest Icon is fairly solid!!
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
NCSNOW
Member
WolfpackHomer91
Member
But the EPS has been dogwater for 36hrs ? Like its getting close to absolutely nothing lol
SnowNiner
Member
Nam looks like it blows up the coastal and gets the comma head to just reach out and tap the clt area. That would be great but I’m having a hard time believing that with past experience. But maybe the roaring jet would enhance precip? Heavy frotogenesis in the clt area?
Stupid Nam has me somewhat interested again, but I bet the RGEM is more right. My current belief is whatever we get will be from the overrunning, and not the coastal.
Stupid Nam has me somewhat interested again, but I bet the RGEM is more right. My current belief is whatever we get will be from the overrunning, and not the coastal.
seems like the rgem the last 2 runs is slowly improving, grasping on straws 
rburrel2
Member
Rgem/ICON/Euro are all very similar with precip and timing.
Those are probably best case scenario for the upstate b/c they're showing most of the liquid falling from 8am-11am wedsneday morning. Interesting that all three of them have a banding feature that goes through the upstate dropping local amounts of .15-.25. area's outside of the banding get more like .07-.10
Euro/Rgem has the banding down around greenwood/laurens county which doesn't do anyone any good. The Icon has it right over the northern upstate which would slam us with 2-3 inches of paste.
That's what we need to root for.
.07-.10 of liquid wednesday morning probably won't get much done for us b/c we will still be fighting the boundary layer. Sloppy dusting at best would be the outcome with that.
Edit: The GFS is honestly also in the icon/rgem/euro camp but with banding over the i85 corridor/slightly south of it. again, that's best case situation for us. as long as we get in that banding.
Those are probably best case scenario for the upstate b/c they're showing most of the liquid falling from 8am-11am wedsneday morning. Interesting that all three of them have a banding feature that goes through the upstate dropping local amounts of .15-.25. area's outside of the banding get more like .07-.10
Euro/Rgem has the banding down around greenwood/laurens county which doesn't do anyone any good. The Icon has it right over the northern upstate which would slam us with 2-3 inches of paste.
That's what we need to root for.
.07-.10 of liquid wednesday morning probably won't get much done for us b/c we will still be fighting the boundary layer. Sloppy dusting at best would be the outcome with that.
Edit: The GFS is honestly also in the icon/rgem/euro camp but with banding over the i85 corridor/slightly south of it. again, that's best case situation for us. as long as we get in that banding.
Wonder how that activity in the plains is doing compared to modeling
Mpirone12
Member
have balloons been implemented into new model runs yet? Also what’s generally more reliable within this range now? Short range or globals?
Well if you look at the AI, GFS, ICON, CMC, Euro/EPS, RGEM they are all in the same ballpark.
rburrel2
Member
preface: I could wrong but,
It's hard to beat ICON/GFS/Euro/EPS/AIFS/Rgem combo on the qpf field when they all agree with each other.
95% chance the cam's/hi res models will correct to them.
The question is, when they do, what will the banding/qpf field look like? It could still be more robust than the globals, imo. It'll be nice when they do come in line so we can see where the preferred mesoscale banding/jackpots are setting up. Also will help us determine where the P-type lines are setting up too.. can't tell anything when the hi-res models are so far off on the main features and we know the globals aren't the best with drawing those boundary lines.
It's hard to beat ICON/GFS/Euro/EPS/AIFS/Rgem combo on the qpf field when they all agree with each other.
95% chance the cam's/hi res models will correct to them.
The question is, when they do, what will the banding/qpf field look like? It could still be more robust than the globals, imo. It'll be nice when they do come in line so we can see where the preferred mesoscale banding/jackpots are setting up. Also will help us determine where the P-type lines are setting up too.. can't tell anything when the hi-res models are so far off on the main features and we know the globals aren't the best with drawing those boundary lines.
Water is crazy up there. When we go in July it can be frigid dark water one day and be like a hot tub with aqua blues the next
It's crazy to see how different models handle QPF. When models like ICON, GFS, Euro, EPS, AIFS, and Rgem are in agreement, it definitely boosts confidence in the forecast. You're right that the high-resolution models (CAMs) tend to correct to the global models eventually, but they still play a crucial role in refining the details. When the CAMs and global models align, we can get a much clearer picture of where mesoscale banding and jackpot zones might set up. These bands can make a huge difference in localized snowfall totals or heavy rainfall amounts. Plus, high-res models help us zero in on those tricky P-type transition zones where rain changes to snow, sleet, or freezing rain.
Also I know it is important to remember that global models often struggle with fine-scale features and boundaries, which is where the hi-res models come into their own. So, even if they’re off initially, they can provide valuable insights once they start to converge with the globals. Overall, it's a waiting game to see when the CAMs will come in line with the globals. Once they do, we'll have a much better handle on the specifics.
12z Euro AI ticked a little better, precip contours shifted maybe a county / half a county west. Just east of GSO went from 0.14” to 0.20”, for example. It’s pretty consistent as it’s been for days, though.
Now, the 18z GFS is underway.
Now, the 18z GFS is underway.
rburrel2
Member
I did notice the NAM made a big shift within the qpf field over missouri within 24 hrs of go time. A random city went from .03qpf to .27qpf forecasted in one cycle. They were previously in a minima zone/screw hole and that flipped to a jackpot zone.
You just never know, lol.
Given that info Jamie Arnold who is a meterologist down in Myrtle Beach has this map for the winter storm he posted this on Twitter about 2 hrs ago. Agree or Disagree?:
packfan98
Moderator
Definitely a little stronger precip field at hr 42 as a result.
Yeah, the thing is these types of shifts happen all the time with rain storms, it’s just no one cares about the difference between 0.05” of rain and 0.25” of rain. But in snow terms it’s a bigger difference…between a coating and 2-3”.
packfan98
Moderator
rburrel2
Member
18z GFS is absolutely juiced for the upstate.... dang. Everybody gets at least .18 inches of liquid of some area's get .30, all before 1pm.
This is the way for us!
This is the way for us!
Did the American models ingest something at 18z the others didn’t? Because the GFS looks like it’s going to be a lot juicier, too.
EDIT: I forgot 12z was juicier for areas out west, too, so it’s not as much of an improvement as I thought, but it’s consistent. Folks in the Western Piedmont are definitely going to be rooting for the GFS and NAM over a lot of the other modeling right now. Just sucks how quickly this thing comes through, but what else is new.
EDIT: I forgot 12z was juicier for areas out west, too, so it’s not as much of an improvement as I thought, but it’s consistent. Folks in the Western Piedmont are definitely going to be rooting for the GFS and NAM over a lot of the other modeling right now. Just sucks how quickly this thing comes through, but what else is new.
That energy came fully onshore just today so who knows?
GFS leading us to victory
take it to the bank and deposit
packfan98
Moderator
That's funny, I said the same thing earlier today about qpf as it relates to rn/sn.
rburrel2
Member
albertwilsonjr
Member
Latest graf totals
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Sneaky move there!
Yeah, I didn’t remember the 12z was pretty good for the Western Piedmont, too. The American guidance is certainly a lot better out that way (SREF included) compared to the foreign modeling. Not as much difference out towards the Triangle.
To me, it kind of makes sense for precip to fill in further west than a lot of the foreign modeling is showing now, though.
Some things just don’t make sense, and the GFS QPF depiction makes sense with the broad warm air advection regime 
rburrel2
Member
Way off. No ice for the upstate. Don't mean to roast him, but woof. He probably just didn't spend much time looking at what the upstate area.
That's a real pet peeve of mine though, if you're gonna make a map, don't include areas that you don't spend any time going over with a fine tooth comb.
00z FV3 gonna be 
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LickWx
Member
If these trends continue you may just get you an inch or two fro! If its drastic changes maybe even 3-4