• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Feb. 19-20

Probably not much reason to be concerned about the HRRR at this range. It’s terrible, not that it couldn’t be right as a broken clock is right twice a day. It probably would’ve blown up the coastal a bit at the end of its run, but yes as depicted it’s quite bad. Anyways, the 18z NAM is underway (another model we maybe shouldn’t take seriously at this range 😂).
 
superjames1992 said:
Probably not much reason to be concerned about the HRRR at this range. It’s terrible, not that it couldn’t be right as a broken clock is right twice a day. It probably would’ve blown up the coastal a bit at the end of its run, but yes as depicted it’s quite bad. Anyways, the 18z NAM is underway (another model we maybe shouldn’t take seriously at this range 😂).
Click to expand...
You have to be concerned about everything that doesn’t show snow
 
rburrel2 said:
I think the Hrrr was about to blossom some stuff with the upper level jet... but definitely a worst case scenario in general.

It looks a lot like the 12z 3km NAM.
Click to expand...
yeah youre right - 18z nam 3k looked very similar at that same Wednesday 18z time stamp but then blossomed in the final 6 hours to give a solid 2+ inches for central and northern NC. HRRR mightve been headed in that same direction, and also HRRR certainly isnt the thing we need to pay most attention to right now, but oof nonetheless
 
We have some warning shots being fired for sure, enough models whether we trust them or not, are showing suppression and this drying up big time. Granted this is for my area in Charlotte but seems to me the writing is starting to show up on the wall. We've seen this a lot this winter season and no need to think it won't trend the same way with the current modeling.
 
TigerSnow said:
We have some warning shots being fired for sure, enough models whether we trust them or not, are showing suppression and this drying up big time. Granted this is for my area in Charlotte but seems to me the writing is starting to show up on the wall. We've seen this a lot this winter season and no need to think it won't trend the same way with the current modeling.
Click to expand...
Cool....Nothing, absolutely NOTHING is showing a shutout in Charlotte unless you live on College street in a condo or something... ANY of the suburbs in play for 2-4" 100%
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
Cool....Nothing, absolutely NOTHING is showing a shutout in Charlotte unless you live on College street in a condo or something... ANY of the suburbs in play for 2-4" 100%
Click to expand...
I hope you are right and maybe I am jaded with how it's played out this year, I am just looking at what we have going right now. You are absolutely correct that is shows it now, hopefully we keep that alive.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
that’s prob high end. Sleet and ZR will likely keep snow to 0 to 1”.
Click to expand...
yea maybe Huntersville - Concord - Pill city USA aka Gastonia for sure.... I get @1300m even talking about putting models down, but I really dont understand all these TV guys and Others "ohhh dreaded warm nose all the way to I-40" ok show me? Bc you cant, youre literally just basing it off history ect. I dont mean "you" as in you either Bird lol


EDIT : We will get shutout qpf wise b4 Mixing is an issue... but who am I
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
yea maybe Huntersville - Concord - Pill city USA aka Gastonia for sure.... I get @1300m even talking about putting models down, but I really dont understand all these TV guys and Others "ohhh dreaded warm nose all the way to I-40" ok show me? Bc you cant, youre literally just basing it off history ect. I dont mean "you" as in you either Bird lol


EDIT : We will get shutout qpf wise b4 Mixing is an issue... but who am I
Click to expand...
You are much safer than me mixing wise, you should be fine. I always tow the line being close to 85. My worry is QPF wise, there is not doubt at this point it has trended down some, except the last suite of models.
 
Personally, I’d be surprised if the 18z NAM differs from the 12z much in the end. Famous last words.
 
WolfpackHomer91 said:
yea maybe Huntersville - Concord - Pill city USA aka Gastonia for sure.... I get @1300m even talking about putting models down, but I really dont understand all these TV guys and Others "ohhh dreaded warm nose all the way to I-40" ok show me? Bc you cant, youre literally just basing it off history ect. I dont mean "you" as in you eoither Bird lol


EDIT : We will get shutout qpf wise b4 Mixing is an issue... but who am I
Click to expand...
I think you're in good shape for at least an inch or two if you're north/ east of the 77/85 interchange. Being about a mile west of 77 and 5 miles south of 85, I'm living on the edge from the west and south with this one at this point, so I am preparing for disappointment. I do think mixing is going to be an issue in the city at least when precipitation starts falling due to UHI and marginal rates. Seen it too many times to discount. I'm hoping intensity can get heavy and precipitation can last long enough to overcome before it moves eastward. I'm still thinking the ULL can be the bigger deal for those of us to the west if it tracks right.
 
572a2303766c25a54fb15f7480302665.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow and sleet
accumulations between 1 and 6 inches, greatest accumulations
towards the North Carolina and Virginia border. Ice accumulations
up to two tenths of an inch possible, greatest accumulations along
and south of US 64 corridor.
 
Ross said:
best guess is that better northern stream interaction pushes this a little on the stronger/warmer side
Click to expand...
Yeah, starting to see that as we get into hr 40+. H5 does look a bit better to my lightly trained eye. Seeing a little more precip blossom st the surface at hr 45 than last run, too.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top