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Wintry Feb. 19-20

Moderate snow up in central VA at hr 51, big changes there. Lots more precip, also more mixing…
 
Heights ahead of the storm rose, so it came NW! I'm learning, much more precip now, did the tilt change as well a bit more SW-NE this run than W-E
 
LukeBarrette said:
Can we ban the NAM on this forum until 24 hours until the system. Sweet thanks
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We can not Luke, back when you were a wee toddler the NAM was the shizz, you took note when it called out a warm nose. Many members perished in those days for not heeding its warnings!

On another note it is the most amped, if it looks like that tomorrow it'll have more credence
 
griteater said:
What, you're not buying the mini-hurricane off Jacksonville > ENC EVA snowstorm evolution? Come on Luke!

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As I've mentioned on here before though, the old saying "there's a LITTLE bit of truth in a lie".....that gulf stream area is one to watch for baroclinic blow up - more than what the globals will get a hold of
 
LickWx said:
We can not Luke, back when you were a wee toddler the NAM was the shizz, you took note when it called out a warm nose. Many members perished in those days for not heeding its warnings!

On another note it is the most amped, if it looks like that tomorrow it'll have more credence
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Here is the thing that I truly believe. I think its good with warm noses (figuring out temps in the column), but its overestimation of WAA causes precipitation to be too far north and too strong 9 times out of 10. When it overestimates that process then the warm nose will also be too far north. The problems stack up. Alright I know y'all are tired of me bitchin about it so I'll stop here.
 
griteater said:
As I've mentioned on here before though, the old saying "there's a LITTLE bit of truth in a lie".....that gulf stream area is one to watch for baroclinic blow up - more than what the globals will get a hold of
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Its record warm apparently, was surprised to hear that
 
3k NAM clown map is a beaut here with it still snowing. Btw, Rah NWS WSW says 1-6" sn/ip accumulation but my point forecast has 3-5" Wednesday and 1-3" Wednesday night. Am I doing this wrong, that sounds like 4-8" to me?
 
LickWx said:
Can not find where I read it but anomalies are toasty, I was just as surprised. Poor OBX they will never warm up with those frigid blues

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Seeing that though also makes me believe the natural baroclinic zone for a low to move will be right along that dividing line between the blue and the orange… basically hugging close to the coast and then to the east of Cape Hatteras
 
Chazwin said:
Seeing that though also makes me believe the natural baroclinic zone for a low to move will be right along that dividing line between the blue and the orange… basically hugging close to the coast and then to the east of Cape Hatteras
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Also makes me think, weaker , less QPF , and not as much of a warm nose. Perhaps not as much deepening in the Atl
 
RBR71 said:
3k NAM clown map is a beaut here with it still snowing. Btw, Rah NWS WSW says 1-6" sn/ip accumulation but my point forecast has 3-5" Wednesday and 1-3" Wednesday night. Am I doing this wrong, that sounds like 4-8" to me?
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I think you read it right and I can see 4-8" for your town.
 
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